Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine: Data Insights and Policy Responses
More than two years on from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict have faded. Although some refugees have already returned to Ukraine, despite the ongoing war, millions remain abroad. And while the European Union and countries such as the Republic of Moldova have provided temporary protection, policymakers are increasingly facing questions about whether to invest in measures to further refugees’ local integration, help them prepare for return and reintegration once conditions in Ukraine allow it, or both.
Additional Resources
To learn more about this topic and hear insights from MPI Europe, IOM, and Ukrainian community experts, check out this webinar.
This study, resulting from collaboration between MPI Europe and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), examines the factors behind refugees’ intentions to return to Ukraine or stay abroad. Leveraging IOM data across ten Central and Eastern European countries, it considers the extent to which personal and household characteristics, host-country reception conditions, and origin-country factors are linked to intentions to return in either the short or the long term.
The report also provides recommendations for European and Ukrainian policymakers, international organizations, and civil-society actors regarding the ongoing response to displacement from Ukraine and approaches to managing possible future returns.
1 Introduction
2 Ukrainian Displacement in Europe: Present and Future Prospects
A. The Historic Activation of the Temporary Protection Directive
B. Temporary Protection in the Republic of Moldova
C. Uncertainty about the Future
3 Return Dynamics to Date
A. The Scale and Nature of Returns
B. Permanent versus Temporary Return
C. Initial Policy Responses
4 Data Insights on Refugees’ Return Intentions
A. Personal and Household Factors
B. Host-Country Factors
C. Origin-Country Factors
D. Return Intentions among Displaced Third-Country Nationals
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
