Charting a New Regional Course of Action: The Complex Motivations and Costs of Central American Migration
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Highlights
A survey of thousands of migrant-sending households in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras finds economic hardship drives migration desire, though few turn intentions into plans.
- In 2021, 43 percent of the nearly 5,000 surveyed households in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras expressed a desire to migrate internationally, up from 8 percent in 2019—yet only 6 percent had made plans and just 3 percent concrete preparations.
- Economic pressures—low wages, unemployment, and difficulty meeting basic needs—were the top reasons to consider leaving, while family ties and a sense of belonging were leading reasons to stay.
- Central Americans spend an estimated $2.2 billion each year on migration, including about $1.7 billion paid to smugglers for irregular journeys—far more than the cost of legal channels.
- The report by MPI, the World Food Programme, and the MIT Civic Data Design Lab urges expanding social protection, tailoring development projects to local realities, incentivizing diaspora investment, and widening legal employment pathways to redirect irregular migration.
The movement of Central Americans toward the United States has long shaped regional migration dynamics. Yet, recent changes in the volume and characteristics of those on the move have spurred renewed interest among the region’s governments in cooperating to address the root causes of irregular migration and promote safe, orderly, and regular movement.
Key Findings & Recommendations
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To inform these discussions, this report explores the factors that drive people in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to consider and decide to migrate irregularly or regularly, as well as the costs and economic implications of migration for households and communities throughout the region. The findings draw from a unique in-person survey of nearly 5,000 households in 12 departments across the three countries, complemented by a nationally representative online survey with more than 6,000 individual responses.
Conducted in Spring 2021 amid the economic instability and changing migration policies brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, these surveys capture a snapshot of migration decision-making during a particularly dynamic period and point to important opportunities for regional collaboration. The report is the result of collaboration between MPI, the UN World Food Programme, and the Civic Data Design Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Migration Intentions and Behaviors
A. In-Country Conditions
B. Intentions to Migrate
C. Migrant Profiles
3 The Economic Costs of Migration
A. Regular and Irregular Migration Pathways
B. Estimating the Costs of Different Migration Pathways
C. Financial Preparations for Migration
4 The Economic Impacts of Migration
5 Conclusions
Latin America and Caribbean Initiative
The Initiative combines rigorous research with direct engagement of governments, institutions, and stakeholders to help build orderly, rights-respecting migration systems across one of the world's most dynamic migration regions.
About the Global Program
The Global Program bridges policy advice, research, and candid dialogue to design effective migration policies, drawing on global evidence and anticipating the forces reshaping how people move.
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