Exploring Refugees’ Intentions to Return to Ukraine: Data insights and policy responses
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Highlights
Drawing on surveys of nearly 61,000 Ukrainians, this report finds that security, host-country support, and jobs shape Ukrainian refugees’ return plans.
- 91 percent of Ukrainian refugees surveyed in 10 European countries said they hoped to return home in the long term; only 15 percent had concrete near-term plans.
- Improved security was the leading reason cited for near-term return; high war intensity in a refugee’s home region sharply reduced both short- and long-term return intentions.
- Refugees employed in the host country were 12 percentage points less likely to plan near-term return. Longer displacement and having dependants also reduced short-term return intentions.
- Comprehensive host-country support in areas such as health, education, and social services correlated with higher near-term return intentions, while labour market support was associated with longer stays.
More than two years on from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict have faded. Although some refugees have already returned to Ukraine, despite the ongoing war, millions remain abroad. And while the European Union and countries such as the Republic of Moldova have provided temporary protection, policymakers are increasingly facing questions about whether to invest in measures to further refugees’ local integration, help them prepare for return and reintegration once conditions in Ukraine allow it, or both.
Additional Resources
To learn more about this topic and hear insights from MPI Europe, IOM, and Ukrainian community experts, check out this webinar.
This study, resulting from collaboration between MPI Europe and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), examines the factors behind refugees’ intentions to return to Ukraine or stay abroad. Leveraging IOM data across ten Central and Eastern European countries, it considers the extent to which personal and household characteristics, host-country reception conditions, and origin-country factors are linked to intentions to return in either the short or the long term.
The report also provides recommendations for European and Ukrainian policymakers, international organizations, and civil-society actors regarding the ongoing response to displacement from Ukraine and approaches to managing possible future returns.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Ukrainian Displacement in Europe: Present and Future Prospects
A. The Historic Activation of the Temporary Protection Directive
B. Temporary Protection in the Republic of Moldova
C. Uncertainty about the Future
3 Return Dynamics to Date
A. The Scale and Nature of Returns
B. Permanent versus Temporary Return
C. Initial Policy Responses
4 Data Insights on Refugees’ Return Intentions
A. Personal and Household Factors
B. Host-Country Factors
C. Origin-Country Factors
D. Return Intentions among Displaced Third-Country Nationals
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
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