Migration Governance in Unsettled Times: How Policymakers Can Plan for Population Change
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Highlights
Aging economies are growing more reliant on immigrants, but populist backlash and short-term firefighting are crowding out long-term, whole-of-government migration planning.
- Populist gains in elections in the United States, Germany, and other countries reflect mounting public frustration with immigration governance, even as aging economies grow more dependent on migrant workers.
- Short-term political pressures have crowded out long-term planning, creating a cycle in which irregular migration consumes bandwidth while workforce and demographic needs go unaddressed.
- Governments should invest in whole-of-government coordination, using consultative planning exercises such as those in Australia and Canada to set multiyear, transparent immigration targets.
- Strengthening immigration governance requires rebuilding public consent by acknowledging unequal costs and benefits, confronting trade-offs openly, and linking immigration policy to housing, productivity, and workforce strategies.
Populist claims that immigration is chaotic, unlawful, and unfair are increasingly resonating even within societies whose members generally believe some level of immigration is needed to maintain economic competitiveness. This shift, which has pushed governments of all stripes toward greater restrictions and reduced the appetite for experimentation, comes at a particularly fraught time.
Advanced economies with aging populations are increasingly reliant on immigrants to sustain their workforces, but concerns about how population growth could affect the soaring cost of living and public infrastructure have caused support for even legal immigration to wane. Meanwhile, a perception of a loss of control over borders and immigrant admissions has prompted quick fixes, at the expense of longer-term, sustainable solutions.
This Transatlantic Council on Migration issue brief explores the factors behind this breakdown in immigration governance and lays out strategies for reform, drawing lessons from a range of countries. In particular, it makes the case that regular, long-term planning—while a tall order when governments are grappling with short-term pressures—will be essential if countries are to successfully navigate emerging demographic and economic challenges.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Breaking Points and Circling Sharks: Why Migration Governance Is Broken
A. Visible Disorder Creates a Short-Term Bias
B. Managing Immigration Effectively Requires Deeper Policy Coordination
C. Regions Have Different Needs and Feel Immigration’s Costs and Benefits Unevenly
D. The Long Arc of Immigration Policy Is Poorly Served by Short Electoral Cycles
3 Finding Wiggle Room to Forge a Long-Term Strategy
A. Prioritizing Managed Migration and Control
B. Developing More Transparent and Predictable Immigration Planning
C. Improving Whole-of-Government Coordination Beyond Crisis
D. Planning for Regional Variation and Explaining Trade-Offs
4 Conclusion: The Case for Future Planning
About the Transatlantic Council on Migration
Through rigorous research, high-level convenings, and tailored policy advice, the Council provides policymakers with essential analysis and cutting-edge policy recommendations to help tackle the most vexing policy questions.
About the Global Program
The Global Program bridges policy advice, research, and candid dialogue to design effective migration policies, drawing on global evidence and anticipating the forces reshaping how people move.
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