In certain corners of the internet and social media, it is emphatically stated that the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has swelled by tens of millions of people over the past few years, with the proffered estimates seemingly growing exponentially by the day. These claims assume that each time a migrant is apprehended at the border, the unauthorized immigrant population increases by one person. In reality, a sizeable share of migrants arriving at the border without authorization to enter are quickly returned or removed, and the math ignores that encounters represent events, not individuals, reflecting the fact that in some cases the same person has been intercepted two or more times. Importantly, the unauthorized population is shaped not just by entries but also by exits: People are deported or leave the country voluntarily, they die, or at times, they are able to get a green card.
Amid all the noise and understandable public interest in how record levels of encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are affecting the size of the unauthorized immigrant population, it is more important than ever to have reliable estimates.
Using a methodology to assign legal status to the foreign born in U.S. Census Bureau datasets that was developed in collaboration with leading demographers at The Pennsylvania State University and refined over the last decade, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates that approximately 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the United States as of mid-2022—up from 11.2 million in 2021 and 11.0 million in 2019. This annual growth accounts for new migrants who crossed the border illegally or overstayed legal visas, minus the exits from the unauthorized population. The estimate, drawing from the Census Bureau’s most recent American Community Survey (ACS), includes people who hold Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) or Temporary Protected Status (TPS), as well as asylum applicants and Afghans and Ukrainians who entered with humanitarian parole before mid-2022. ACS data for 2023 and beyond are not yet available, and those future datasets will be needed to understand how the unauthorized immigrant population has been shaped by the high numbers of border encounters witnessed since mid-2022 even as other trends are occurring, notably the shrinking of the unauthorized population from Mexico that has been underway for well more than a decade.
Increase in the Unauthorized Population Driven by More than Border Arrivals
The growth in the size of the overall unauthorized immigrant population between 2019 and 2022 (see Figure 1) is partially explained by increased irregular arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border, with a rising mix of nationalities from across the Western Hemisphere and beyond. It also stems, however, from the sizable number of Europeans and others who overstayed their nonimmigrant visa.
Figure 1. Estimates of the Size of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States by Leading Organizations, 2010-22
The increase in unauthorized immigrants between 2021 and 2022, which was driven by migration from countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua, Haiti, and some in Europe and Africa, was partially offset by emigration of large numbers of Mexican unauthorized immigrants. The Mexican unauthorized immigrant population has been shrinking for more than 15 years, and at 5.1 million in 2022 is now 34 percent lower than its 7.7 million peak just before the 2008-09 Great Recession. The decline continued into 2022, albeit at a slower pace than in prior years, with the Mexican unauthorized immigrant population falling by roughly 75,000 since 2021 (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Annual Change in the Size of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population from Mexico in the United States, 2010–22
*Data for 2020 were interpolated, represented as an average of 2019 and 2021 estimates, because the 2020 ACS was deemed of low quality due to data-collection difficulties during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading the U.S. Census Bureau to issue warnings about its use. See U.S. Census Bureau, "Pandemic Impact on 2020 American Community Survey 1-Year Data," updated October 27, 2021. Sources: MPI estimates, developed in collaboration with Van Hook.
Reshaping Origins
While Mexico continued to be the top origin country, accounting for 45 percent of the unauthorized population in 2022 as compared to 64 percent in 2007, the MPI estimates illustrate the shifts in migration patterns that continued to reshape the nationality makeup of the population in 2022. Net increases in the unauthorized immigrant population from South America outpaced those from Guatemala and Honduras, both traditional countries of origin with repatriation agreements that make their nationals more likely to be removed by the U.S. authorities.
After Mexico, the top countries of origin of the unauthorized population as of 2022 ranged from those in nearby northern Central America; to South American countries of Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil; as well as farther-away countries such as India, the Philippines, and China (see Table 1).
Table 1. Top Ten Countries of Origin for the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States, 2022
Source: MPI estimates, developed in collaboration with Van Hook.
Latin Americans and Caribbeans combined accounted for 80 percent of all unauthorized immigrants in 2022. Ten percent were from Asia (see Table 2).
Table 2. Regions of Birth of Unauthorized Immigrants in the United States, 2022
Source: MPI estimates, developed in collaboration with Van Hook.
Why Are the Estimates Relatively Stable?
The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States has hovered around 11 million, plus or minus a few hundred thousand, over the last 15 years. Estimates by key research organizations have stayed within a similar range despite using differing methodologies (see Figure 1). While this stability seems to defy expectations, given the very high numbers of encounters of unauthorized migrants by U.S. authorities at the U.S.-Mexico border in recent years, a closer look offers a logical explanation.
The unauthorized immigrant population has never been static—it has always been marked by the churn of entries and exits.
For example, more Mexican unauthorized migrants have left the United States each year since 2008 than joined the unauthorized population. Many Mexicans moved to the United States during the economic boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s to work in construction, agriculture, or service-sector jobs. The 2008-09 recession, however, abruptly reduced job opportunities and many immigrants moved back to Mexico. At the same time, conditions in Mexico changed: Reductions in family size reduced the pressures for people to work abroad to support their families, and local job opportunities started to increase as the Mexican economy grew. Expanded farmworker pathways and rising educational attainment in Mexico that improves access to U.S. visas for professionals have simultaneously contributed to a gradual increase in legal migration from Mexico.
Except for sizeable declines from 2021 to 2022 in the number of unauthorized immigrants from El Salvador and India, Mexico’s longstanding trend of more migrant departures than arrivals is not replicated by other top sending countries. Among many other unauthorized immigrant groups, new arrivals have outpaced exits. Between 2008 and 2022, the unauthorized population from Africa grew by 96 percent; from the Caribbean by 86 percent; from Central America by 55 percent; South America by 53 percent; Europe, Canada, and Oceania by 47 percent; and Asia by 42 percent. But because Mexicans compose nearly half of the overall unauthorized population, their decline over this period substantially offset increases among all other groups combined.
The Growth of a “Twilight” Population
A trend that has strongly affected the lives of unauthorized immigrants, their U.S.-born children, and their communities is that a growing share hold—or even arrive with—some kind of liminal status that affords the right to temporarily live and work in the United States but does not offer a path to permanent status. MPI has long included in its estimates of the unauthorized population, as have other demographers, people who hold a twilight status such as TPS or DACA. MPI’s estimates, as those of other leading organizations, also include people in the process of applying for asylum and those allowed U.S. entry through various humanitarian parole programs. While the term “unauthorized” is an imperfect descriptor for migrants whom the U.S. government has granted the right of temporary stay, MPI continues to group together these populations given their lack of a visa or other durable legal status, as well as the impermanence of statuses that could be revoked by a future administration.
The Biden administration has taken significant steps to allow unauthorized immigrants to work legally and without fear of deportation, such as by expanding TPS eligibility to more than 1 million immigrants already in the country, including large numbers from Afghanistan, Haiti, Ukraine, and Venezuela. In June, the administration announced a parole in place program that could benefit up to 500,000 unauthorized immigrants who are married to U.S. citizens and have lived in the United States a decade or more. The status would grant temporary protections and also facilitate the U.S.-citizen spouse’s ability to sponsor them for legal permanent residency (i.e. getting a green card) without having to leave the United States for a decade. This program, which has yet to take effect, would represent the most significant action for the resident unauthorized immigrant population since the launch of the DACA program in 2012. In addition to offering protections for unauthorized immigrants in the United States, the administration has also significantly expanded the use of humanitarian parole authority to allow migrants who have a U.S. sponsor or make a CBP One appointment to enter and remain in the country legally for one to two years, mostly without a pathway to durable status.
As a result of these and other actions, the legal status composition for the unauthorized population has become more complex in recent years.
A Population Expected to Grow Beyond 2022
Multiple factors shape whether the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has grown since mid-2022. It is likely that the significant rise in migrant arrivals at the border since 2022 has increased the size of the unauthorized population. However, the extent of the increase depends on how many of those who entered the country have stayed pending the conclusion of their immigration court proceedings or have been removed by U.S. authorities. It also depends on how many longer-term unauthorized immigrants—from Mexico and other countries—will become legal permanent residents through the newly announced parole in place program for spouses of U.S. citizens or have returned home voluntarily or involuntarily.
With the increasing national attention on border arrivals and growth of the unauthorized immigrant population, understanding the changes in the size and characteristics of the population is fundamental to the design of policies that work in the national interest.
Diverse Flows Drive Increase in U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population
In certain corners of the internet and social media, it is emphatically stated that the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has swelled by tens of millions of people over the past few years, with the proffered estimates seemingly growing exponentially by the day. These claims assume that each time a migrant is apprehended at the border, the unauthorized immigrant population increases by one person. In reality, a sizeable share of migrants arriving at the border without authorization to enter are quickly returned or removed, and the math ignores that encounters represent events, not individuals, reflecting the fact that in some cases the same person has been intercepted two or more times. Importantly, the unauthorized population is shaped not just by entries but also by exits: People are deported or leave the country voluntarily, they die, or at times, they are able to get a green card.
Amid all the noise and understandable public interest in how record levels of encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border are affecting the size of the unauthorized immigrant population, it is more important than ever to have reliable estimates.
Using a methodology to assign legal status to the foreign born in U.S. Census Bureau datasets that was developed in collaboration with leading demographers at The Pennsylvania State University and refined over the last decade, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates that approximately 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the United States as of mid-2022—up from 11.2 million in 2021 and 11.0 million in 2019. This annual growth accounts for new migrants who crossed the border illegally or overstayed legal visas, minus the exits from the unauthorized population. The estimate, drawing from the Census Bureau’s most recent American Community Survey (ACS), includes people who hold Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) or Temporary Protected Status (TPS), as well as asylum applicants and Afghans and Ukrainians who entered with humanitarian parole before mid-2022. ACS data for 2023 and beyond are not yet available, and those future datasets will be needed to understand how the unauthorized immigrant population has been shaped by the high numbers of border encounters witnessed since mid-2022 even as other trends are occurring, notably the shrinking of the unauthorized population from Mexico that has been underway for well more than a decade.
Increase in the Unauthorized Population Driven by More than Border Arrivals
The growth in the size of the overall unauthorized immigrant population between 2019 and 2022 (see Figure 1) is partially explained by increased irregular arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border, with a rising mix of nationalities from across the Western Hemisphere and beyond. It also stems, however, from the sizable number of Europeans and others who overstayed their nonimmigrant visa.
Figure 1. Estimates of the Size of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States by Leading Organizations, 2010-22
Notes: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates of the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population, developed in collaboration with Jennifer Van Hook from The Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute, are achieved by subtracting the number of legal immigrants from the total of all immigrants for each country and region represented in U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) data. The number of legal immigrants is estimated by adding up all legal admissions from each country and region in every year—using U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) administrative data—and then reducing this number to account for deaths and emigration of legal immigrants. Finally, the unauthorized immigrant population estimates are adjusted upward slightly to account for the recognized undercount of this population in the ACS. For more detail on this methodology, see MPI, “MPI Methodology for Assigning Legal Status to Noncitizen Respondents in U.S. Census Bureau Survey Data.”
Sources: MPI estimates, developed in collaboration with Van Hook. Estimates from other organizations are from Robert Warren, “In 2019, the US Undocumented Population Continued a Decade-Long Decline and the Foreign-Born Population Neared Zero Growth,” Journal on Migration and Human Security 9, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 31–43; Robert Warren, “After a Decade of Decline, the US Undocumented Population Increased by 650,000 in 2022,” Journal on Migration and Human Security 12, no. 2 (January 2024): 85-95; Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, “Mexicans Decline to Less than Half the U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population for the First Time,” Pew Research Center, June 12, 2019; Pew Research Center, “Unauthorized Immigrant Population Trends for States, Birth Countries and Regions,” June 12, 2019; Jeffrey S. Passel and Jens Manuel Krogstad, “What We Know about Unauthorized Immigrants Living in the U.S.,” Pew Research Center, November 16, 2023; Bryan Baker, “Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2015–January 2018,” DHS, Office of Immigration Statistics, January 2021; Bryan Baker, 2018, “Population Estimates: Illegal Alien Population Residing in the United States: January 2015,” DHS, Office of Immigration Statistics, December 2018; Bryan Baker and Robert Warren, “Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2018–January 2022,” DHS, Office of Homeland Security Statistics, April 2024.
The increase in unauthorized immigrants between 2021 and 2022, which was driven by migration from countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua, Haiti, and some in Europe and Africa, was partially offset by emigration of large numbers of Mexican unauthorized immigrants. The Mexican unauthorized immigrant population has been shrinking for more than 15 years, and at 5.1 million in 2022 is now 34 percent lower than its 7.7 million peak just before the 2008-09 Great Recession. The decline continued into 2022, albeit at a slower pace than in prior years, with the Mexican unauthorized immigrant population falling by roughly 75,000 since 2021 (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Annual Change in the Size of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population from Mexico in the United States, 2010–22
*Data for 2020 were interpolated, represented as an average of 2019 and 2021 estimates, because the 2020 ACS was deemed of low quality due to data-collection difficulties during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading the U.S. Census Bureau to issue warnings about its use. See U.S. Census Bureau, "Pandemic Impact on 2020 American Community Survey 1-Year Data," updated October 27, 2021.
Sources: MPI estimates, developed in collaboration with Van Hook.
Reshaping Origins
While Mexico continued to be the top origin country, accounting for 45 percent of the unauthorized population in 2022 as compared to 64 percent in 2007, the MPI estimates illustrate the shifts in migration patterns that continued to reshape the nationality makeup of the population in 2022. Net increases in the unauthorized immigrant population from South America outpaced those from Guatemala and Honduras, both traditional countries of origin with repatriation agreements that make their nationals more likely to be removed by the U.S. authorities.
After Mexico, the top countries of origin of the unauthorized population as of 2022 ranged from those in nearby northern Central America; to South American countries of Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil; as well as farther-away countries such as India, the Philippines, and China (see Table 1).
Table 1. Top Ten Countries of Origin for the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States, 2022
Source: MPI estimates, developed in collaboration with Van Hook.
Latin Americans and Caribbeans combined accounted for 80 percent of all unauthorized immigrants in 2022. Ten percent were from Asia (see Table 2).
Table 2. Regions of Birth of Unauthorized Immigrants in the United States, 2022
Source: MPI estimates, developed in collaboration with Van Hook.
Why Are the Estimates Relatively Stable?
The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States has hovered around 11 million, plus or minus a few hundred thousand, over the last 15 years. Estimates by key research organizations have stayed within a similar range despite using differing methodologies (see Figure 1). While this stability seems to defy expectations, given the very high numbers of encounters of unauthorized migrants by U.S. authorities at the U.S.-Mexico border in recent years, a closer look offers a logical explanation.
The unauthorized immigrant population has never been static—it has always been marked by the churn of entries and exits.
For example, more Mexican unauthorized migrants have left the United States each year since 2008 than joined the unauthorized population. Many Mexicans moved to the United States during the economic boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s to work in construction, agriculture, or service-sector jobs. The 2008-09 recession, however, abruptly reduced job opportunities and many immigrants moved back to Mexico. At the same time, conditions in Mexico changed: Reductions in family size reduced the pressures for people to work abroad to support their families, and local job opportunities started to increase as the Mexican economy grew. Expanded farmworker pathways and rising educational attainment in Mexico that improves access to U.S. visas for professionals have simultaneously contributed to a gradual increase in legal migration from Mexico.
Except for sizeable declines from 2021 to 2022 in the number of unauthorized immigrants from El Salvador and India, Mexico’s longstanding trend of more migrant departures than arrivals is not replicated by other top sending countries. Among many other unauthorized immigrant groups, new arrivals have outpaced exits. Between 2008 and 2022, the unauthorized population from Africa grew by 96 percent; from the Caribbean by 86 percent; from Central America by 55 percent; South America by 53 percent; Europe, Canada, and Oceania by 47 percent; and Asia by 42 percent. But because Mexicans compose nearly half of the overall unauthorized population, their decline over this period substantially offset increases among all other groups combined.
The Growth of a “Twilight” Population
A trend that has strongly affected the lives of unauthorized immigrants, their U.S.-born children, and their communities is that a growing share hold—or even arrive with—some kind of liminal status that affords the right to temporarily live and work in the United States but does not offer a path to permanent status. MPI has long included in its estimates of the unauthorized population, as have other demographers, people who hold a twilight status such as TPS or DACA. MPI’s estimates, as those of other leading organizations, also include people in the process of applying for asylum and those allowed U.S. entry through various humanitarian parole programs. While the term “unauthorized” is an imperfect descriptor for migrants whom the U.S. government has granted the right of temporary stay, MPI continues to group together these populations given their lack of a visa or other durable legal status, as well as the impermanence of statuses that could be revoked by a future administration.
The Biden administration has taken significant steps to allow unauthorized immigrants to work legally and without fear of deportation, such as by expanding TPS eligibility to more than 1 million immigrants already in the country, including large numbers from Afghanistan, Haiti, Ukraine, and Venezuela. In June, the administration announced a parole in place program that could benefit up to 500,000 unauthorized immigrants who are married to U.S. citizens and have lived in the United States a decade or more. The status would grant temporary protections and also facilitate the U.S.-citizen spouse’s ability to sponsor them for legal permanent residency (i.e. getting a green card) without having to leave the United States for a decade. This program, which has yet to take effect, would represent the most significant action for the resident unauthorized immigrant population since the launch of the DACA program in 2012. In addition to offering protections for unauthorized immigrants in the United States, the administration has also significantly expanded the use of humanitarian parole authority to allow migrants who have a U.S. sponsor or make a CBP One appointment to enter and remain in the country legally for one to two years, mostly without a pathway to durable status.
As a result of these and other actions, the legal status composition for the unauthorized population has become more complex in recent years.
A Population Expected to Grow Beyond 2022
Multiple factors shape whether the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has grown since mid-2022. It is likely that the significant rise in migrant arrivals at the border since 2022 has increased the size of the unauthorized population. However, the extent of the increase depends on how many of those who entered the country have stayed pending the conclusion of their immigration court proceedings or have been removed by U.S. authorities. It also depends on how many longer-term unauthorized immigrants—from Mexico and other countries—will become legal permanent residents through the newly announced parole in place program for spouses of U.S. citizens or have returned home voluntarily or involuntarily.
With the increasing national attention on border arrivals and growth of the unauthorized immigrant population, understanding the changes in the size and characteristics of the population is fundamental to the design of policies that work in the national interest.