Before the Storm: Getting Out in Front of Climate Displacement

This transcript was generated using AI and may contain inaccuracies. If you notice an error, feel free to email [email protected].

CHAPTERS 

[01:52]: What forecast-based financing is and how anticipatory action works 

[04:47]: How humanitarian funding can be deployed ahead of forecasted events 

[10:02]: The limits of forecasting across different types of hazards 

[12:51]: How forecast reliability changes over time: insights from real-world examples 

[22:09]: Supporting choice and agency in displacement decisions 

[24:01]: Mongolia’s dzud response and efforts to protect livelihoods before extreme cold 

[27:08]: Measuring impact: challenges in evaluating anticipatory action 

TRANSCRIPT
[00:00:02.20] 

Hello and welcome to Changing Climate, Changing Migration. This is a podcast produced by the Migration Policy Institute that analyzes how climate change is affecting migration. My name is Julian Hattem. I'm the editor of the Migration Information Source, which is MPI's online magazine covering interesting trends and changing policies around the world. This podcast is part of a broader focus on the nexus between climate change and migration, which you can read more about at migration policies. A recurring theme of my conversations for this podcast has been that climate linked Migration is neither necessarily good nor bad on its own. Moving can be an effective method of adapting to climate change, but that's usually only the case if people are moving intentionally and are able to plan for their move. On the other hand, forced and unplanned displacement in response to climate disasters can have a profoundly negative impact on people's lives. Displacement can make bad situations worse and can make it harder for individuals and communities to rebuild after a disaster hits. So what if aid groups step in before the disaster strikes? That's the subject of today's episode. My guests today are Gana Gantulga and Zeke Simperingham.

[00:01:27.18] 

Gana is the anticipatory Action Coordinator at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and Zeke is the global lead for migration and displacement. They've done some work on an innovative but maybe shockingly simple way to prevent people from being displaced, provide support before the disaster strikes. Gana, Zeke, thanks so much for coming on the podcast.

[00:01:50.01] 

Thank you.

[00:01:50.13] 

Thanks Julian. Pleasure to be here.

[00:01:52.11] 

So you've done some research on this strategy called forecast based financing. Explain that to me. What precisely is being financed and what is the forecasting?

[00:02:03.02] 

Excellent. Thank you so much for the question. I think it's important to also highlight this forecast based financing and people have heard forecast based financing, forecast based action and anticipatory action. So perhaps it is under this big umbrella of this approach. So what does that entitle? I think it's important to highlight that forecast based financing includes pre agreed plans. So what is this action is going to be about? Right, so what is the certain threshold? What is a trigger to act before the certain event? This pre agreed plan also contains roles and responsibilities of actors, in our case national societies of who really gets the information, how do they act upon it and who and how do they coordinate with other stakeholders such as national Hydro-Met service and essentially this plan is submitted to the IFRC and you can get this pre arranged financing or reliable financing to get this plan funded.

[00:03:05.04] 

So basically it's the idea that if we can predict where natural disasters are likely to occur. It makes more sense to get defend against those harms ahead of time, I guess. Right. Rather than waiting for disaster to strike, people to be displaced and then rushing in after the fact. Is that a fair kind of summary?

[00:03:21.05] 

Exactly. So traditionally especially humanitarians have been responding after the impact of the hazard. Right? So you see floods occurring, hundreds households affected and then you go, you do your emergency needs assessment and then look into different sectors, how has it impacted education, food security, wash and other areas. But, but now what does this forecast based financing or anticipate reaction brings is that if there are forecasts already telling you that there will be in 3 days heavy rainfall that will cause floods, we should be able to do something in those three days. Right. And that's what essentially this forecast based financing approach is about to really act between this crucial window of opportunity when you receive the forecast and then when the impacts will occur.

[00:04:07.10] 

That's great. I'd like to walk through some of the mechanics and that example you just used hypothetical is great. So let's say we know there's going to be or we can predict there's going to be a flood in a certain area in three days. What happens, who gets the money, where does it come from, where does it go, when does it get released? And how do you navigate the nitty gritty logistics mechanics of all of that?

[00:04:29.08] 

Great. I think it's important to mention just first and foremost to manage expectations that different organizations do forecast based financing. So OCHA has their own funding mechanisms such as CERF has theirs, WFP has theirs. So I can only speak about IFRC funding mechanism. Essentially there's this big pot of funding called Disaster Response Emergency Fund, it was established years ago, usually provides money or funding for those small and medium scale disasters that does not really make it to BBC News, you know. So now what was innovative is that not only does this drift allocate money for the response itself, but now allocates funding before the disaster strikes. So even humanitarian fundings, right? So they are always released after the impacts are seen and people are dying, people are affected, then the money is released. But now what is innovative is that we're trying to release that funding beforehand based on this forecast, based on this pre agreed plans. And now there are certain modalities of getting this funding for the anticipatory pillar of DREF or Disaster Response Emergency Fund. Specifically you need to develop early action protocol or this anticipatory action plans that we have been talking about.

[00:05:44.20] 

And then now what happened this year is that we also simplified early action protocol. So not only we are going to ask very difficult questions of, you know, how has this forecast is been checked by the climate scientists or why is this threshold and is it going to be reliable? So this is why we had to also simplify our modality so that other national societies can access this fund. And then also there is, if you do not have also pre agreed plans and the event is in the horizon, for example, there's going to be based on the, you know, expert judgment, there's going to be election violence, you can still still act ahead through this imminent disaster response emergency fund. So now each of these modalities have very different connotation I guess. So for the full fledged EAPs or the re election plans we need to make sure that there is already the triggers already established, everybody's involved, the climate scientists and hydro-met Service. And the threshold is very specific and it's usually tackling more extreme events. So what we call in five year return period. So the magnitude should be higher so it's not just seasonal events but very high that it will cause big humanitarian impact.

[00:07:04.06] 

So that's what we're talking about. And then for the simplified EAPs we're talking about lesser, maybe above average hazard that impacts could be a bit lower. And both of those mechanisms can tackle. The full fledged EAPs can target around 5,000 people, minimum 5,000 people. And then the other one is 2,000 people. And also the threshold, the funding is also different. For the EAPs you can request 500,000 CHF or the Swiss francs and then for the simplified ones is 250,000 CHF or Swiss Frank.

[00:07:41.18] 

And these are national federation, Red Cross, Red Crescent societies that are entities.

[00:07:46.14] 

Yeah, 192 National Red Cross and Red Crescent Society societies. Now you asked who would get this funding, Right. So the funding will be released to the national society. And it's important to I think mention that the early action protocols have first the readiness activities and also pre positioning and these are crucial and it's done upon when the funding is released and upon the EAP is approved. So what does that mean? Well what pre positioning means that the national society based on their plans, let's say they pre position the shelter kids or the toolkits that they are going to use for the shelter strengthening for the cyclones, let's put it that way and then the readiness activities such as training the volunteers on how to use the shelter kits and then the money, the remaining funding will be released when the threshold is reached. So you get an information that there is going to be 120 kilometer of cyclone happening, then, based on all the things that you have already already done, pre positioning and the readiness of training activities, you take the action of going in the at risk area and to strengthening those shelters.

[00:08:57.19] 

Right. And hopefully or not in three days the cyclone will hit and the houses are very strong.

[00:09:04.02] 

And so it happens in stages, I guess.

[00:09:06.20] 

Right, exactly. So we're talking about a timeline of very different timelines. Right. So early action protocols, this planning process takes a year or more and sometimes even more than that. But then now also with simplifying the tools and simplifying our planning phases, I hope it will reach more and more national societies to really act upon the forecast and information.

[00:09:32.06] 

So it sounds like there's a lot of variation though in flexibility. Right. The EAPs Early Action Plans seem to vary a lot, presumably from place to place. I assume the triggering event, when the money gets released varies depending on the type of hazard. I guess what the money is used for varies a lot. I mean, how do you reckon with that if there is so much variance here? How do you kind of make a framework for something that is inherently so changeable?

[00:09:59.12] 

I think that's an interesting question. And climate scientists would tell you probably there are certain things that we just cannot predict well, that will give the humanitarians enough lead time to take action. So for instance, geophysical hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, that does not give us any time to take action ahead. Perhaps, you know, we can develop certain contingency plans, response plans after the impact, but it's very difficult to act within few minutes, for instance, you know. So I think there are definitely limitations when it comes to certain hazards. And beyond that, I think what is underpinning this whole work is really around forecast. Right. So if the country has a reliable forecast, then we should be able to better use it. And I think this is where our work is concentrated together working with others and collaborating with the WMO and making sure at the national level we're working with the hydro-met offices. So that's a critical part, that we do not do it alone and we work with others. And this is why also different reports will tell you where different agencies are collaborating. And it's not just one agency to set the standard.

[00:11:17.09] 

And you mentioned the WMO, which is the World Meteorological Organization. Right. So it seems like there's a bunch of collaboration involved in this forecasting. Because I'm very, I'm very interested in this forecasting. I mean, it seems like there's. I guess I'm curious how good Is the forecasting. And it seems like there's a balance between. You don't. If you forecast too far in advance, it's less reliable, but if you forecast too late in advance, it's yet less useful for humanitarians. And so how do you balance that and how is the forecasting reliable or how reliable is the forecasting? Are there cases where analysts forecast a typhoon or flooding, whatever, and then it doesn't come to pass? And I guess how do you resolve that situation?

[00:12:01.23] 

I could probably give you an example. So I think we're talking here both slow onset, so more like droughts and those hazards that give us enough time to take action. And then there are sudden onsets, right? Like cyclones and floods, even flash floods that you have maybe aware of. So there are different types of hazards that give us enough lead time and then there are hazards that give us less lead time. And you accurately mentioned it. It is essentially about forecast and how closer to the impact it gets then the more reliable it is. I can give you maybe personal example and then I'll give you more of a case study.

[00:12:42.08] 

Yes, please.

[00:12:43.07] 

If you check your apple weather forecast, it now gives you amount of precipitation per hour. Right. So I was about to hike over the weekend and then I was desperately checking this weather forecast and seven days ago initially it was saying like 10am There will be 2 millimeter of rain, which is pretty doable. So you can plan on it, right? You can take, you can, okay, two millimeter, I can deal with it. It's only for one hour. I'm happy to do the hiking. However, the closer it gets, you know, you check it maybe on Wednesday and then it tells you the whole morning is almost flooding. You know, there is 3 millimeter of rain, 4 millimeter of rain and very intensive rain. So that's the gist, right. We do not have a crystal ball to tell that the weather, how the weather is going to be. In fact, when the day arrived over the weekend, there was actually pretty much zero rainfall in check in the area specifically. So really the forecast itself is gets reliable closer to the impact date or to the event itself. However, what we're using for the forecast based financing or anticipate reaction is that models.

[00:13:57.15] 

Right? So the projections and models. And what is that based on? Is based on empirical data. And what are the previous data for over the years. So when you are with a national society planning for anticipatory action, you have to sit with them and look into in the last 10 years how the flooding has impacted this country. Right. So how Many people, it has impact, has it become more severe, which areas? And you know, is it changing? How is it becoming frequent or not the intensity? So it's all based on more of a historical data. And then now we're also looking into more climate projections, but that's more of a new territory again based on the forecast conversation that we've been talking about. Right. So I think that's an important thing to mention. Yes, with weather it is easier because we have better satellites, technology, weather stations, but then there are those that we just cannot. Now, what happened with Philippines? So last year in Philippines we did have early action protocol which stated that when there is a warning that gives us two day or three day lead time, if there's 120 kilometer an hour cyclone is about to hit us, the early action protocol will be activated and then the shelters will be strengthened.

[00:15:14.23] 

Maybe there will be some also early harvesting. So the crops that is already matured, we can harvest them before the second one takes the them away. However, what has happened? The plan did not get activated. Why? It's because the trigger did not reach. So the trigger at the end did not reach that 100 kilometer an hour, our speed limit. Speed. And therefore the plan didn't activate. What has happened is that of course it has to be over the weekend. Over the weekend there was a rapid intensification of the cyclone. So there was intensification during the weekend and the cyclone hit. So we did not take the action because our trigger did not reach. However, there was a humanitarian impact. And I think this is. Yeah, this is an important factor also that looking into all these different hazards and magnitudes and forecasts, what will really reach that humanitarian impact, how many people would it affect, how many people's livelihoods will be impacted. And that's what we look at when we're talking about anticipation and how reliable forecasting is. And at the end of the day when you talk about forecasting, it's also not a business of the humanitarians.

[00:16:26.04] 

Right. We probably can go ahead and then deliver cash or deliver hygiene kits and shelter kits and train the volunteers on how to do certain actions. And the national side is already at forefront of that. However, when it comes to forecast themselves, and that's also a different territory. You

[00:16:44.04] 

are not, I assume, a meteorologist or

[00:16:46.06] 

a climate scientist that's... Unfortunately not. Unfortunately not. But working on anticipatory action. I think you have to read a lot of those climate data projections, why it's not reliable, why it's reliable and how to calculate certain things and what we're seeing is that I think beyond this unexpected changes of cyclones becoming even more faster in a very small period of time, like this rapid intensification of the cyclone Philippines, I think it's becoming even more complex because of the compounding risks. Right. And that's, I'm sure you touch base a lot on this podcast. It's also very difficult to predict different hazards just based on weather forecasts itself because there's a lot of socioeconomic and political factors that are involved. I was just in the HNPW or the Humanitarian Networking Partnership Week and we talk about how can we anticipate better the conflicts that we cannot anticipate. Right. So Sudan, for instance. We did not anticipate Sudan happening. However, what we could have anticipated is probably what we could have done in the short lead time or in the short, in different sectors, what could have happened. So let's say, you know, based on expert knowledge, different agencies who are working there, especially the local NGOs and communities, they know that their education will be impacted, their healthcare will be impacted.

[00:18:18.10] 

So perhaps we could have taken actions to mitigate those different risks that have already been identified.

[00:18:24.12] 

So yeah, I do want to, I'm curious about that and I want to know you touched on this a bit. But I guess what, what does happen if you do have a triggering event and then you have forecasting that says a typhoon is going to come or something? I guess what do you do? You talked about kind of bolstering, fortifying shelters, but especially because of the kind of multi dynamic, the multi dimensional nature of climate and displacement. It's not just the case that if someone's home is destroyed, that's the only problem. They also have economic livelihoods, political systems. I mean how. Yeah. What kind of projects are there that try and prevent displacement even when the causes of displacement are multifold?

[00:19:07.24] 

I think it's a very good question because I know I kept talking about this early action protocols and this pre grid plans and it's all about that essentially because when you receive that there will be a cyclone, it will take a very long time for you to analyze the vulnerability capacities data of the populations at risk and the different factors and socioeconomic powers of these people. Right. At risk. And therefore this pre agreed plans are so critical because in order to establish this pre agreed plans or those early action protocols, we look into the whole data. Right. So who is at risk? What are their vulnerabilities are, what is their purchasing powers are and so on and so forth. So if we manage to consider all of that, then in this pre grid plans or early action protocols, we're already defining who is at risk and what are their capacities are. And I think this is why so critical the Red Cross Red Crescent movement work is that the national societies are in fact the communities themselves. We work through the branches at the headquarters and the volunteers are already part of these communities. So they contribute to this early action plans.

[00:20:22.07] 

And I think that what also differentiates us compared to other organizations.

[00:20:27.17] 

Can I maybe add to that Julian as well? Because I think you make some really important points. The first is, as I'm sure you discuss a lot on your podcast, is that climate displacement, climate migration is complex. There's no one type of climate migrant or one type of person displaced by the effects of climate change. It's as Gana said, slow onset effects like sea level rise, there's land degradation, there's livelihood loss, there's displacement connected to mega events. This looks very different in different regions, this looks very different in different countries. And even within one country these kind of patterns of migration and displacement can look really different. So within that complexity, anticipatory action and specifically forecast based action has a really important role. And that role is that even though we know there are all these different kinds of people on the move, something that unites the majority of them is that most people are displaced because of weather related events. Not everyone, but the vast majority of people at the moment. And so as Garner said, weather related events are kind of forecastable. Like there's imperfections around that, but often they're seasonal. A lot of them are forecastable.

[00:21:47.09] 

So it gives us, for a lot of the people who are displaced, this really important, like you said, window to act as humanitarians. And so we've done a little bit of work about looking at the specific links between forecast based actions and people who are displaced, communities who are displaced. And one of the things we've seen is that we're not trying to prevent people being displaced through anticipatory actions, but we're trying to give them the choice. So can we do something to invest in a part of your life that gives displacement, creates displacement as a choice rather than being a necessity. And so some of the quite straightforward actions that Gana mentioned we've seen have protected people against being displaced where they don't want to be. So, so Gana mentioned reinforcing people's livelihoods so that they have a livelihood to return to that's protected, reinforcing essential infrastructure, reinforcing housing. So these are the primary effects of the hazard, but we know that they have an important flow on effect to whether someone is displaced or not. But we also know that actually for many people in a mega event, being displaced is actually a safe option.

[00:23:00.16] 

It's better to leave your house, it's better to go to an evacuation center. Also, some of the anticipatory actions that are getting funded are also for those people we know who need to be displaced for their own safety, for their protection, Investing in making that displacement safer and more dignified. So making sure we've got evacuation centers set up, making sure the most at risk can get to those evacuation centers, making sure there's lighting in the evacuation centers. Often very, very basic things that might be missing. And I mean, even during COVID 19, just making sure that there were masks, making sure that there were sanitizers as much as possible, making these safe and dignified locations for people to be displaced, where that is necessary.

[00:23:49.02] 

Yeah, Zeke, I picked up on your word choice and I think that's critical, especially when we're talking about displacement. And what I can talk about is perhaps where I'm coming from. Mongolia and Mongolian Red Cross has been working on anticipatory action for quite some time now, since 2019, when their first early action protocol was developed. So what does that entitle? It is about preventing the negative impact of this phenomenon called ZOD or very extreme cold winters, where it reached minus 50 degrees Celsius. So it's extremely cold. And just to give you a bit of a context, we're talking about nomadic families and herder families, right? So what do they live on is on their animals, on their cattle, the cow, sheep, goats, and they have hundreds of them, right? So this families, they really rely on this livestock and then that's their entire livelihoods. So when it reached to minus 50 or even below minus 50, a lot of them unfortunately die. And I have seen time and again where they really try to save their livestock, Putting them in their yards like a small shelter. But then you cannot fit all these hundreds of them.

[00:25:05.13] 

And so when this cattle or when this herder family's livestock die, they have no choice but to go to Ulaanbaatar, which is the capital of the city, and live around the outskirts of Mongolia, live in small yurts. And it's very difficult to find a job. And you get the picture, right? So now what was this early action protocol was about is to save the herder families livestock when there was a forecast of an extreme cold or weather event of dzud, when there was a national med service issuing weather forecasting in three different provinces, there will be 20% of chances of this dzud event. Then the national society distributed cash to the herder families so they do not get those extra loans. They also distributed vitamins for the livestock so that they actually survived the cold winter and some vaccines and other kits. That was essential to save those different cattles. And I think that was essential because if really it does not talk about oh, we're preventing displacement in any way. However, logically speaking, if the herder families lost their cattle, they would have to be forced to move to the center and to the capital.

[00:26:22.18] 

So it definitely gave them a choice to save their herd and leave wherever they wanted.

[00:26:27.17] 

Those are great points and that's a great example. Thank you. We're almost out of time, but I guess that ties into maybe my last question, which is how, I guess how do you measure success? How do you measure effectiveness? Especially if the negative outcome is maybe that people will still be displaced, at least temporarily. It's a bit like if you've ever seen the movie A Minority Report where like pre crime, like how do you prevent a thing that you know is going to happen when it not. Like how do you measure that counterfactual, you know and like how, I guess how do you know if this forecast based financing model works and does it work? Is it effective? Does that make sense to that question?

[00:27:07.14] 

Yeah, for sure. Counterfactuals, that's exactly what we live with and it's very difficult to prove it right. And I think that is what's great about this Red Cross, Red Crescent movement is that we have so much response experiences. We know how to respond to disasters, especially the small and medium scale disasters. And I think for at least for focus based financing and anticipatory action, that's what now exactly what we're looking into is in the past couple of years how did this national society responded through which actions and how many people could they reach and what was the impact of their response compared to acting early? So this analysis we are just starting. So I cannot give you exact numbers of this, this, this, but there are some examples of like Food and Agriculture Organization doing some studies in Mongolia stating that $1 invested in anticipatory action saved $7 in response. So there are some numbers but I think at the end of the day it is very difficult to give those numbers. However, a lot of the capacity strengthening in the community levels as well level like local national societies, it's not visible and we cannot put number in it.

[00:28:25.00] 

Why am I saying this? Is this building early action protocols takes so much time and so much effort of these national societies and through this process they improve their relationship with the communities on better understanding their situation, their lives. They improve their relationship with the Hydra-Met Offices, National Disaster Management Agency. So even if it's not visible or written, it still impacts on their next response, you know. So yeah, there are a lot of things that we cannot put number to it. Of course there are many, many numbers of in terms of how many people we reached, how many families have received cash and the studies are steadily increasing and I think this is where the focus will be also for the next couple of years for us.

[00:29:10.02] 

I wish we had a lot more time to keep talking, but that probably brings us to a nice little close. Thank you so much for coming on. This was a great conversation. I really enjoyed this discussion and thank you for your work.

[00:29:20.09] 

Thanks Julian for the invitation. Pleasure to be here.

[00:29:23.18] 

Thank you. Looking forward to hearing the podcast.

[00:29:27.12] 

Gana Gantulga is the Anticipatory Action Coordinator at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and Zeke Simperingham is the global lead for migration and displacement at the IFRC. Thanks for listening to this episode of Changing Climate, Changing Migration. You can read more about anticipatory humanitarian action in a recent report that Gana co authored called Anticipatory Action in 2022: A Global Overview. That's available online at anticipation-hub.org. If you like what you heard, make sure that you subscribe to the podcast to catch our new episodes when they come out. It's available on all the major podcast services and if you've missed an episode or two, you should check out our archives. We talk about how to predict future climate related migration, places where people might be moving to and from, and some of the different ways that organizations are reacting. All those episodes and more are available online at migrationpolicy.org/podcasts. You can also find the Migration Policy Institute's other podcasts there, which I would encourage you to check out. World of Migration features conversations about the big ways that international migration is changing and Moving Beyond Pandemic looks at how migration management and travel is evolving coming out of the COVID 19 pandemic.

[00:30:47.12] 

For more smart migration coverage, subscribe to MPI's Migration Information Source newsletter at migrationinformation.org. The newsletter comes out twice a month and features fresh takes on migration trends and policies worldwide. Follow MPI on all of our social media accounts and stay in touch with me by sending me an email at [email protected]. I'd love to hear from you. This episode was produced by Yoseph Hamid, with assistance from Lisa Dixon and oversight by Michelle Mittelstadt. Our theme music is Touch by Patrick Patrikios. My name is Julian Hattem. Thanks again for tuning in.