How Immigrants and Their U.S.-Born Children Fit into the Future U.S. Labor Market
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Highlights
Immigrants and their U.S.-born children have driven all U.S. labor force growth since 2000 but face the need to upskill as nearly three-quarters of jobs in 2031 will require postsecondary credentials.
- Immigrants and their U.S.-born children accounted for all U.S. civilian labor force growth from 2000 to 2023, rising from 19 percent to 29 percent of all workers. They represent an outsized share of STEM, health-care support, blue-collar, and food service workers.
- While 72 percent of U.S. jobs in 2031 will require postsecondary education or training, 52 percent of first-generation immigrants had that level of education in 2023; 21 percent lacked a high school diploma.
- Adults who are the children of immigrants better positioned, with 68 percent holding at least some postsecondary education in 2023, though Latino adults across all generations lag significantly, with 36 percent of first-generation Latinos lacking a high school diploma.
- Closing education and training gaps—particularly for Latino and other minority immigrant-origin adults—is both an economic and equity imperative as demand for higher-skilled workers grows.
The U.S. economy has changed dramatically in recent decades, from one that was heavily industrial to one that is mostly service and knowledge based. In the process, demand has grown for workers with higher levels of education and a different mix of skills.
This period of rapid change is far from over. Population aging, the rise of new technologies, and other megatrends continue to reshape the U.S. economy and workforce. While 62 percent of U.S. adults had postsecondary education or training in 2023, 72 percent of U.S. jobs are expected to require this level of education by 2031.
This report examines the projected educational demands of future U.S. jobs and how well the education and training of today’s workers meets those demands. It focuses on the country’s 47.6 million immigrant-origin workers, a group that includes immigrants and their U.S.-born children and that makes up a growing share of the country’s workforce. The report compares trends in the immigrant-origin population with those among U.S.-born adults with U.S.-born parents and explores the workforce and immigration policy implications of these findings.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Megatrends Affecting the U.S. Economy
3 The Growing U.S. Immigrant-Origin Population
4 Immigrant-Origin Workers Driving Labor Force Growth
5 Immigrant-Origin Workers in Occupations Projected to Grow
6 U.S. Adults’ Skills Today versus Those Expected in the Future
7 The Educational Requirements of Jobs of the Future
8 Conclusion and Implications
About the Global Skills and Talent Initiative
Anchored in the premise that immigration policy must be part of a broader skills and talent strategy, the Initiative has a particular focus on employment-based immigration and the supports that can help immigrants apply their full range of educational and professional skills.
About the U.S. Immigration Policy Program
The U.S. Immigration Policy Program provides analysis of U.S. immigration pathways, the impacts of enforcement and other policies, and the characteristics of immigrant populations.
About the National Center on Immigrant Integration Policy
The Center is a national hub connecting policymakers, educators, community leaders, and service providers with evidence-informed policy research, technical assistance, and data to advance effective immigrant integration at U.S., state, and local levels.
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