What Brazil’s Disastrous Flooding Says about Climate Displacement Trends

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CHAPTERS 

[00:02:26]: Severe flooding in southern Brazil: scale of displacement and barriers to return 

[00:04:33]: Impacts on migrant populations, including Haitians and Venezuelans 

[00:09:12]: The Cartagena Declaration and regional approaches to protection 

[00:16:30]: The Inter-American Court process and implications for climate-related protection 

[00:19:42]: Climate impacts in the Amazon and effects on Indigenous communities 

[00:24:17]: Internal and international migration trends from Brazil and policy considerations

TRANSCRIPT
[00:00:03.11] 

A city underwater, scores of people dead, Hundreds of thousands forced from their homes, millions affected. When they come back, many people find that everything's been lost. Some will decide to move away for good. I'm talking about southern Brazil, where historic flooding that was made more likely because of climate change hit the state of Rio Grande do Sul in April and May. But the scene is increasingly familiar. All around the world, disasters like this are playing out over and over again. This is Changing Climate, Changing Migration, a podcast from the Migration Policy Institute devoted to exploring how climate change is uprooting people from their homes and otherwise affecting migration. My name is Julian Hattem. I'm your host and I'm the editor of MPI's online magazine, Migration Information Source. The flooding in Rio Grande do Sol and the state's capital city of Porto Alegre has been called catastrophic and the worst disaster of its kind in Brazil in modern memory. Three months of rain fell in just two weeks. For listeners in the United States, the best comparison may be Hurricane Katrina, when more than a million people were displaced from New Orleans and other places along the Gulf Coast.

[00:01:21.17] 

But massive events like these are becoming increasingly common. In 2022, for instance, several million people were displaced by floods in Pakistan. Much of this displacement is internal within a country, but it sometimes spills across borders. The situation in Brazil shares some similarities with these other instances, but, of course, every situation is unique. And in some ways, some of the policies being developed around South America make it a particularly interesting case study. I'm joined today by Valéria Emília de Aquino. She is a human rights lawyer and researcher and a doctoral student at the Federal University of Goiás in Brazil. Valéria, thank you so much for your time. I appreciate you coming on. How are you today?

[00:02:02.20] 

Thank you. Thank you for the invitation. I'm very happy to be here and glad that I have this opportunity to share about what's going on right now in Brazil.

[00:02:10.16] 

Great. Well, so tell me what's going on right now in Brazil, briefly. What happened that caused all this flooding? What caused the flooding? How many people were displaced? Where did they go and have they returned?

[00:02:23.01] 

Yeah, well, pretty much what happened lately is that we were having, like, heavy rains in the state of Uganda do Sul, and this is one of the causes for the floods in the state. And also, like, due to the rains, the Lake Guaíba and the main rivers of the state, Taquari and Caí, they also raised the levels. And the tip of the point, the cherry on the top, was basically that some dams, they also collapsed. So pretty much everything together like caused this huge disaster in Brazil. And we're talking about 175 deaths and more than 38 people still missing. And we're also talking about 95% of the cities in the state were affected pretty much for 178. And we're also talking about 2.3 million people directly affected and around a million and or more or less half a million they were displaced. So we still have 2000 on shelter and half a million were displaced, placed. And besides that, there's also the problem that over 425,000 couldn't return to their homes yet. So that's the current situation.

[00:03:48.20] 

And so. So we're recording this in mid June. So at this point, it's been more than a month since the rains fell and people are still displaced from their homes, still not being able to go back. Is this because their homes are like underwater or have been destroyed or. I guess what's. Yeah, what does the situation look like now?

[00:04:06.09] 

They're not underwater anymore, but most of homes, they were destroyed or they became uninhabitable because of the mud and the diseases. So that's why this period has been very critical because mainly the government has been working to bring people back to their houses.

[00:04:27.16] 

And my understanding, I mean, reportedly I've read that like tens of thousands of. Among the people who are displaced, tens of thousands of them are Haitians or Venezuelan migrants who had moved to Brazil in recent years. I mean, Venezuela is next to Brazil, but on the far other side of the country. But my understanding is that Brazil has a policy of redistributing forcibly displaced people. Forcibly displaced Venezuelans from the north. And I think Rio Grande del Sol was one of the largest recipients of the Venezuelan population. And then Haitians, large number of Haitians moved to Brazil after the 2010 earthquake, right? I guess so. Can you tell me, do you know anything about the situation, especially for Venezuelans and Haitian migrants and then. Yeah, how these migrants generally have been doing?

[00:05:09.21] 

Yeah, well, you're correct. In fact, Haitians and Venezuelans, they are mainly in the region of southeast, in Brazil. And of course they are across the the country. So a lot of Venezuelans, they are like near the border, which makes sense. But a lot of them, like, they ended up moving to this region, the Southeast, because it's the richest region in Brazil. Southeast and south. And currently Brazil, we have a migration law. And in this migration law we grant humanitarian visa on the grounds of circumstances that have seriously disturbed the public order. So basically what Brazil has done so far was like getting the preamble, getting the main points of the Cartagena Declaration and then copy paste into this law. So pretty much we are working on the humanitarian reception for Haitians and Venezuelans and I should also remember that they still are in a very vulnerable condition in Brazil. So around 35,000 refugees according to the UNHCR were estimated to be affected by the floods in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and most of them Venezuelans and Haitians.

[00:06:36.10] 

I want to go back to the Cartagena declaration in a second because I think that's an important point. But I mean I think we have, I highlight the Haitians and Venezuelans not because their displacement is particularly particularly special or because I want to ignore the plights of native born Brazilians, but because I think that, you know, we've often seen that forcibly displaced people like those fleeting fleeing Haiti and Venezuela are some of the most vulnerable when natural disasters and climate impacts strike. I mean, I guess generally speaking can you say how Venezuelans and Haitians are faring in Brazil? I mean has it been, you know, the 2010 earthquake in Haiti was almost 15 years ago at this point. Venezuelans I think have been in Brazil for a long time. Are they particularly vulnerable to flooding like this and other climate or economic impacts and yeah, I guess. What is their situation in Brazil generally speaking?

[00:07:34.07] 

Yeah, well they are particularly vulnerable because most of them still live in very high risk areas areas. So these areas they are more prone to natural disasters. So when we have like floods or any other like environmental disasters, it's more likely that they're going to be very affected because the, the resilience of the place, the environment that they are in, they are living in is very low. So that's why when they, when we have this kind of disasters in this regions they end up being more affected and heavily affected than when compared to other groups because the issue here is that most of them, they are living in very poor and very small houses and the issue is that the government still has a lot to do in terms of humanitarian reception for these groups. So yeah, as we all know, Brazil is very large, well known by favela, the slums that we have here and most of them they are located in a very high risk area. So in the, up in the hills and when there's a huge flood, sadly these people that they live there because they don't have any other place to go because the government haven't, hasn't placed them in another place. So they end up like being the, sadly the victims of, of this kind of disaster.

[00:09:02.14] 

The main victims, the Cartagena Declaration, this is a document from back in 1984. I think it is right that it's the Cartagena Declaration on Refugees that is a bit, has been seen to have a bit more expansive definition of people deserving humanitarian protection than the traditional 1951 Refugee Convention. Can you talk about that and how it relates to, to this flooding situation, knowing that? Yeah, can you talk about that, the Cartagena Declaration and its relevance here?

[00:09:32.17] 

Sure. Well, it's a very important document for us here in Latin America because we kind of extend the notion of refugee. So of course we still have like the official document, the, the convention, but the, the Cartagena Declaration was surely very important because like many countries in South America and the Caribbean, they have incorporated other circumstances and other points to consider someone as refugee. So, for example, as I said, so Brazil is granting a humanitarian visa on the grounds of circumstances which have seriously disturbed public order, which is basically what the Cartagena Declaration established. So pretty much is what the countries here, they have been doing. They have been granting humanitarian visa, but they are not using, they are avoiding the term refugees. So that's the issue because some NGOs and other civil society organizations, they are saying like, okay, we should consider them as refugees, but instead the governments, they are preferring to use the term humanitarian visa, humanitarian reception instead of refugee because it's pretty much political.

[00:10:57.04] 

And I guess the counterpoint, just to underline the 51 declaration, the 51 Refugee Convention limits refugee status to people fearing persecution based on a handful, you know, religion, ethnicity, political, a handful of relatively prescribed characteristics. And, and which is why, and I say this every episode, there is generally speaking, no such thing as a climate refugee, legally speaking, because that those humanitarian protections or the refugee protection does not apply to climate people impacted by climate change impacts. But I mean, do I guess we're talking here about people fleeing the crisis in Venezuela who have tended to fall into some sort of humanitarian but kind of temporary status in between status. I mean, is there thinking that the Cartagena Declaration or other similar legal instruments could be useful for people fleeing internationally from climate change? I mean, the flooding in Brazil, I assume most of the people who are displaced are displaced internally, which is what tends to happen. They go a couple miles, you know, a couple kilometers, some probably south, and then they come back. But this is near, the, this part of the country is near the border. I mean, do we think that could we see, could we imagine flooding like this forcing international migration?

[00:12:19.05] 

And if so, do you imagine that there could be some. I mean, would those people meet, deserve be able to achieve any sort of humanitarian protections based on things like the Cartagena Declaration?

[00:12:31.07] 

Okay, well, first, you're correct. In fact, the, the most of our migration here concerning the, the floods, they were internal, not international. And the use of climate refugee, the concept itself still very conflictual I would say, because, well, it's again very political. And just to give you one example here that what happened after the flood is that there was, there is actually a law project by, in the, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. And pretty much what they are trying to do is to pass a law on climate policy, climate change policy. And this because we already have one climate change policy. But this climate change policy is from 2009. So it's very, very like old and it needs to be like urgently updated. Especially because Brazil has also signed the Paris Agreement. So I would say that like not being under what, what Brazil is expected, like as a big country, as a big economy, having this kind of climate policy is very bad for the image of the country. But then again, we have this law project and this law project is pretty much to try to adapt and include the climate displacement and they also use the term climate refugee.

[00:14:04.18] 

So there's been like a whole discussion here in Brazil in our Congress to either to see if we consider them as climate refugees or basically because it's mainly like internal. So we would rather avoid the use of climate refugee and instead just focus on climate displaced people. And well, I think like when we think of regional protection for this group of people, it's very difficult because first if it's internal, then I think it's easier to think because the government, like each government in South America and in the Caribbean, they have like instruments to protect their own people. So to guarantee the access to like basic needs. So for example, when the flood hit the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazilian government provided shelters, provided like field hospitals and also veterinarian hospitals, and tried to send like humanitarian aid and etc. But when we're thinking about international displacement, then that's the tricky part. And when we are thinking of protection, then the Cartagena Declaration is very, very important because then like, although it's like not a. I would say it's not. It's considered to be soft law because it's like pretty much a declaration. It's not like an agreement.

[00:15:26.16] 

It's still very strong because like many countries, they decided to incorporate that either in their immigration law or for example in their constitution. There was a case and well, so that's why we're enhancing the protection. But you're correct again when you say like when you ask about the protection in the region. So there's no protection, like so saying there is no instrument for that. However, we have like the, a lot of states, several states in the region, they are incorporating. So I would say that that's, this can be considered as a step forward, you know, so towards like maybe in the future we have like international, we have an agreement, we have a treaty or something for the region. But another thing that I would like to bring is that the, the role of the Inter Commission lately concerning the protection for climate displaced people. Because as you might have seen there was this last month in May, the hearings for the advisory opinion that was requested by Chile and Colombia. And pretty much what has been discussed is how we're going to protect this group of people that are directly affect the, by the effects of climate change.

[00:16:48.14] 

So how are we going to protect people on the move? So of course we're still waiting for the court to pronounce, like to say, to reply all the questions made by both states. But I would say that we're getting there. There's a lot to be done, but we're getting there. And of course documents like Cartagena Declaration, they are very important.

[00:17:16.01] 

Can you, can you run through some of the, the arguments in that case, in the Inter American Commission case? I mean what are the, what are the states asking for? And I mean what are the possible outcomes? Very briefly.

[00:17:26.24] 

Yeah, sure. Well, pretty much the, the States they were asking how states should proceed in terms of responsibility, responsibility concerning climate change. So what are the limits? What are their responsibilities and especially in terms of human rights. So there are, if I'm not mistaken, maybe six questions and each question has like several other questions and the focus is pretty much discussing like vulnerable groups as well. So for example in the hearings it was possible to see a lot of NGOs talking about how the climate change impacts directly women and children and also how it affects for example indigenous people. And so pretty much is what we are seeing is like a discussion that has been made like in Inter American Commission pretty much to see what extent climate change has been affected and what extent is the responsibility of the states to protect and to ensure that they have the access to a right, sorry, access to the right of a healthy and balanced environment.

[00:18:42.07] 

That's great. And that's a, that's a good segue to moving. You know, the flood is a tragic incident, but the flooding is not the, this individual flood is not the only climate impact that Brazil or South America faces. I mean, can you talk more generally about some of the, some of the climate impacts in Brazil, around the region, especially affecting vulnerable groups? You know, the Amazon, for instance, is a kind of iconic symbol of Brazil. And I know there's been lots of struggles with that, especially involving women and children, indigenous groups.

[00:19:12.07] 

Yeah, sure. Well, first about the indigenous group. I just wanted to bring one more data is that when we think of, like, people affected, it's usually we see more people discussing more about women, about children, about old people and like, people with disabilities. But sometimes we don't hear data about indigenous people. And that's why I decided to bring about the floods, that 70% of indigenous territories in the state of Yogurt, so they were affected, and around, around 30,000 people were affected, that they are considered indigenous people. And when we think now going to the Amazon region, when we think of the Amazon region, we got to think that not only indigenous people, they are vulnerable because, like, of logging, because of legal mining, and also because of the cattle and the soy belts that we have, like in the south of Amazon region, that they are expanding to the north. But also we're gonna think that indigenous people, they rely on land, rely on natural resources for their living, for their cultural traditions, and all of this is in danger of being lost. So last year we had, like, a massive drought in the Amazon. So a lot of rivers, they were very, very low.

[00:20:45.20] 

And indigenous people, they were in a very precarious situation. So many tribes here in Brazil, they were starving, they were facing illness, like, for example, malaria and other diseases. And the issue is that they basically rely on fishing. So they go and rely on fishing and also harvesting fruits and other resources from the forest. But if we have droughts, if we have, like, serious droughts as the one that there was last year, so pretty much they, they were struggling to live their lives. So that's the, the situation right now in the, in the region. And I should also remember that although this government has, like, pretty much said that it's going to, like, try to change the situation, trying to not neglect indigenous people anymore. So this was one of the main discourses that Lula brought on his speech. But we're not seeing that. What we are seeing lately is that this still continues. It's pretty, pretty strong in the region. And what we are seeing is that day by day, the fossil fuel industry in Brazil is getting more importance. And instead of relying other, like, sources. So it's difficult to say what the future will bring to the Amazon region and to the country.

[00:22:20.08] 

But what I see so far is that the region still being neglected. And I should also remember that the north region of Brazil, where the Amazon region is, is the poorest of the country. And that's very, very concerning because we're basically talking about one of the biggest, if not the biggest forest in the world. And we're talking about like people say like the lung of the world. Of course we know that the lung basically comes from like the sea. But it's very important the role that Amazon has in our planet. So what future do we have if we don't protect enough our forests here? So this is something that we should consider.

[00:23:04.13] 

Very briefly just to bring it back to kind of migration and displacement. I mean, are we seeing, are there cases in which this kind of encroachment into the Amazon and general climate changes is, and climate impacts on the Amazon is forcing indigenous and other people to move off their land to be displaced? Is that one of the outcomes that is taking place?

[00:23:24.14] 

Yes, one of the outcomes is that people, they are being displaced for sure. So what we see is that indigenous tribes, they are moving from one place to another place. And that's very difficult to them because especially in terms of like cultural traditions because like they have their like cemeteries nearby, they have like their traditions, like their roots is basically in that region. So if they end up like moving elsewhere, that highly affects their well being. So this is one consequence for sure. And as far the rest of the country, like what we're seeing right now in Brazil is that some people, although like most of our migration is internal, so most people, they move from one state or one region to another region. What we are seeing is that a lot of Brazilians, they are moving lately to USA, to Canada, Europe, pretty much because of climate and also economic reasons, because they are very much mixed. So it's difficult to say that someone is just moving because of like climate reasons. No, they are mixed. They are pretty much moving because it's a mixed situation. So I would say that both are very important.

[00:24:43.16] 

There are some communities in Brazil, especially on the coast and near rivers. That is because of the, the, the level of the sea for example, is rising also because of the floods that the rivers also rise. They are, they are being very affected. They are not being able to fish anymore, they're not being able to, to leave because they were basically relying on that kind of resource to leave. So that's why they are moving elsewhere.

[00:25:15.21] 

We're almost out of time. So this is probably my last question, but I guess I wondered about. I'm wondering about the government policies to prevent movement, displacement or and accommodate people who are moved and displaced. I mean, you mentioned there was a discussion, there has been a discussion, I think, since before the floods about some sort of climate policy, including a climate displacement policy. Generally speaking, what is the government doing to prevent and, or accommodate displaced people? And do you think that. Or have government actions ramped up in, in the aftermath of the flooding, which, you know, could be a historical event? Is a historical event.

[00:25:57.00] 

Yeah. Well, pretty much to accommodate these people, I would say that the government helps a lot with shelters. And also the government pretty much has like some local policies, for example, to Venezuelans and Asians. They have access to school and have access to any other rights as Brazilians they have. So what we are seeing here is that there are states that they have better policies than other states, for sure. But we see that Brazil is like basically focused on granting the humanitarian visa, as I mentioned. But I would say that in some states it could be doing more, especially in states in the border. So years ago there was an incident in the border with Venezuela where some Brazilians, they end up like getting in conflict with Venezuelans, they end up burning their, their shelter. They end up like burning their goods. So what Brazilian government could be doing is pretty much like enhancing the protection for, for this group because it's still pretty much like incipient. So what I would say is that Brazilian government has the means, has law for that, has a law for that, has public policies for that, and we also have funds for that.

[00:27:27.21] 

But due to polarity like left and right, depending on the state, depending what, what is the political spectrum of governors, then we're gonna have like more or less protection. So I would say that maybe the, the biggest struggle here is still political.

[00:27:45.09] 

The biggest struggle is always political. I would say that probably takes us to the end, but yeah. Valéria, this was super interesting. Thank you so much for your time. I really appreciated you chatting with me today.

[00:27:56.05] 

Thank you for the opportunity.

[00:27:58.15] 

Valéria Emília de Aquino is a human rights lawyer and researcher focusing on climate migration in Latin America. Thanks for listening to Changing Climate, Changing Migration. Catch all our new episodes by subscribing to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your audio content. And please leave us a rating, which makes it easier for other people to find us too. Find all of the episodes of this and other MPI podcasts online at migrationpolicy.org/podcasts or scroll through the Migration Information Source articles probing different aspects of climate migration at migrationpolicy.org/climate. Subscribe to the free twice a month Migration Information Source newsletter to get perspectives on on all types of international movement all over the world. This episode was produced by Daniella Espacio, assistance came from Lisa Dixon and editorial oversight was provided by Michelle Mittelstadt. Our theme music is touch by Patrick Patrikios. I'm Julian Hattem and I'll see you next time.