The Many Possible Futures of Climate-Linked Migration

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CHAPTERS 

[00:00:04]: How climate change could reshape global migration patterns 

[00:01:45]: Understanding emissions, behavior, and future climate 

[00:04:27]: Low vs. high emissions: how different futures affect displacement 

[00:06:55]: Regions most at risk: South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Caribbean 

[00:10:24]: Will migration follow existing routes—or shift in new directions? 

[00:14:00]: Why 2050 is a turning point for climate and migration 

[00:18:16]: How policy and development shape adaptation and mobility 

[00:20:01]: Can migration be managed as part of climate adaptation? 

TRANSCRIPT

[00:00:04.04] 

Hello and welcome to another episode of Changing Climate, Changing Migration from the Migration Policy Institute. We look at the interactions between climate change and migration with top experts from around the world. My name is Julian Hattem. I'm the host of this podcast and the editor of MPI's journal, the Migration Information Source. To go along with this podcast, we have published a special series of articles about migration and climate change, which you can check out at migrationpolicy.org/climate. In previous episodes of this podcast, we have talked about the difficulty of forecasting precisely how many people will move because of the impacts of climate change. I don't want to talk numbers today, but I do want to talk about general scenarios. Regardless how many people migrate, what will their migration look like? What is the general shape that this migration will take? Might we just see more migration along routes that already exist, or are we going to start seeing new routes emerge? Today I'm talking with Robert McLeman, who is a geography professor at the Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Canada. He has written a lot about climate change and migration and recently wrote a report for MPI looking at what the future may hold.

[00:01:21.02] 

Robert, thank you so much for coming on.

[00:01:23.02] 

It's my pleasure.

[00:01:24.23] 

So it's always a dangerous game to predict the future, and so instead I'm going to start us on a slightly easier path. What don't we know about what the next 100 years is going to look like in terms of how the climate affects migration? And how much depends on these known unknowns, to borrow a phrase.

[00:01:45.16] 

One of the key things that we don't know is how humans are going to behave in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions over the next, especially 20 or 30 years, which is a really critical period in terms of our future climate. At the moment, we are in what scientists call a high emissions scenario. So in terms of greenhouse gas emissions as carbon dioxide and other gasses that are formed by the burning of fossil fuels and that are influenced by deforestation in the tropics, we are seeing almost every year an increase year over year in terms of global emissions. And so as those greenhouse gasses concentrate in the atmosphere, the climate begins to warm. And so it's estimated that we have already warmed the planet by, on average, 1 degree centigrade, or between 2 and 3 degrees Fahrenheit, since pre industrial times. And the emissions that we create globally over the next 20 to 30 years will determine the climate for the remainder of the century. So right now there is an international agreement called the Paris Agreement, which the United States, the new Biden administration, just Announced it's going to rejoin. That agreement seeks to curtail greenhouse gas emissions globally over the next 20 years, 30 years or so.

[00:03:05.22] 

And so if we follow that agreement, then the climate will not warm too significantly over the remainder of this century. It may warm by another 1/2 to a full degree Celsius. Conversely, if we fail to follow that pathway, if we continue to essentially dig up fossil fuels and burn them as quickly as we can, which is a high emissions scenario, then we are going to rapidly warm the planet so that by the end of this century, it could be anywhere from 3 to 4 degrees Celsius warmer on average than it is today, Some more like 8 or 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it is. So that's a huge uncertainty, because obviously the impacts that warming has in coming decades depends upon those warming scenarios. And those impacts in turn, in terms of things like extreme storm events and droughts and other climate disasters that affect people and affect migration, those change as well. So that's probably the greatest uncertainty that we have right now.

[00:04:05.24] 

And what can we say about the realm of possibilities that exists within that uncertainty? I mean, you talked about different possible scenarios. High emission, if the Paris Climate Accord gets followed through and implemented as designed, what is likely to happen with regards to migration if those different climate scenarios occur?

[00:04:27.03] 

If we were to take concerted action on climate change and control greenhouse gas emissions and get them down to the targets of the Paris Agreement, we would see modest or incremental changes in global migration patterns and displacements of people due to climate change in coming years, but nothing in a real sort of catastrophic or disaster type scenario. To give you some context for that right now, or let's put it this way, in 2019, an estimated 24 million people around the world were displaced from their homes by climate related disasters, primarily floods and extreme storms. And that is fairly typical of what we've seen over the last decade or so. The numbers vary from one year to the next. If we keep our greenhouse gas emissions under control, then those numbers will stay relatively the same in coming decades. But conversely, if we do nothing to address the root causes of climate change, and if we follow a high emissions pathway where we generate large amounts of greenhouse gasses and in coming decades, then we see a very sharp increase in coming decades in the number of people who are involuntarily displaced around the world by climate related disasters, primarily because the severity of tropical storms, the severity of floods and the frequency rate of flood events and things like drought and water scarcity start to displace larger and larger numbers of people as well.

[00:05:54.17] 

You get sea levels rising so that coastal populations around the world become threatened by not just inundation of rising sea levels, but also inland penetration of extreme storms and tides and other flood events. So it becomes essentially a case where for every degree of warming that we add to the planet, we see a really sharp increase in the number of people who, who are displaced or need to move because of it.

[00:06:24.17] 

And is this worldwide, these people, or are there certain particular regions that are likely to be most affected by some of these extreme scenarios? And I guess what kinds of extreme scenarios, climate events are we talking about? You talked about, you mentioned extreme storms, sea level rise. I know some people have also talked about desertification and encroaching deserts.

[00:06:47.13] 

So, yeah.

[00:06:47.23] 

What parts of the world are we talking about here and what sorts of climate events are we talking about that will affect some of this migration?

[00:06:55.17] 

Essentially every inhabited area will be affected in some way, shape or form. But certain regions are more highly exposed to climate hazards than others. One of the regions is essentially the southern part of Asia, extending from essentially from Iran through Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, down into Southeast Asia and then right around to southern China, and then of course, the Indonesia, Philippines and the island states there. So this huge region of the world where you essentially have a couple billion people living and where population growth rates are projected to continue to be fairly high over coming decades. And the reasons these areas are highly exposed is because already you have significant frequency and severity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region, around India, Bangladesh, and as well in the South China Sea. So from the Philippines through to the China coast, you also have monsoonal climate regime. So a lot of the precipitation through Asia falls during a distinct wet season followed by a distinct dry season. And so the chances of monsoonal flooding or extreme flood events in Asia goes up under most climate scenarios. And much of Asia's population lives in river valleys and in deltas along the coastal plain.

[00:08:18.19] 

So they're very highly exposed. Large numbers of people exposed to the impacts of climate change. Then you mentioned as well, desertification and drought. So parts of West Africa and southern Africa, water scarcity will become a greater concern as well as much of the Mediterranean region. And so there's a concern that the direct impacts in terms of droughts, but also the indirect impacts in terms of food supplies become a greater concern in those parts parts of the world. East Africa, right now, we tend to think of East Africa as a dry place, but it's also a flood prone area. At this very moment, there are large numbers of people in South Sudan who are experiencing catastrophic floods. And that risk could potentially increase in coming decades because of climate change. A little bit closer to North America here, the Caribbean region, again is an area highly exposed already to hurricane risks. And that potential, especially under high emission scenarios, the potential severity of such events goes up in coming decades as well. So you have large populations along the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida and many Caribbean island states at risk as well. So I've painted a very broad picture of a lot of regions that are at risk.

[00:09:37.22] 

And again, under high emissions scenario, these heavily populated parts of the world will be exposed to greater risk of people being displaced because of climate disasters.

[00:09:51.03] 

And in your report for MPI, you highlight a couple different ways that the migratory flows are likely to change or that those people affected by these disasters could move where they could go, One of which we might expect new path is that we might expect new pathways of migrants moving between origin and receiving countries that have historically not been connected. What do you mean by that and what kinds of countries are you referring to? What new flows might we see in 10, 20, 30, 40 years that we don't currently as a result partly of climate change?

[00:10:24.14] 

Well, if you look at the moment at where the large migration flows are around the world, I mean, most migration takes place within countries. So most Americans, for example, migrate to other cities within the United States or other places in the US similarly in other parts of the world. But if you look at regional and international migration patterns, you'll find that the largest flows of people are, for example, circulating within countries in Southeast Asia, within South Asia and within Sub-Saharan Africa. But at the same time, if you look at longer distance flows, then you'll see, for example, large numbers of people moving from South Asia to the Middle east, for example, primarily to look for work, for employment opportunities in wealthy states in that part of the world. You see flows of people from South Asia to Europe to the United States as well, you see flows of people from Central America and the Caribbean to the United States. So you know these existing patterns exist. And so one way we're going to experience climate change is see more people moving along those pathways. At the same time, as you mentioned, there will be inevitably climate surprises people who are currently living in locations that seem sound, places to live, which become less viable in coming decades.

[00:11:39.10] 

And conversely, places that seem attractive right now may not be so. For example, within Southeast Asia, most migration right now takes place on a rural to urban basis and tends to go from the countryside to large cities right on the coast. So cities like Bangkok or Shanghai or Hong Kong and you know, in South Asia to Dhaka city and so on. These cities will actually become more hazard prone and more, more disaster prone because of climate change in coming years and potentially adversely affected by, by sea level rise. So those will no longer be such attractive destinations for migrants a little closer to home. For example, if you look at the United States right now, one of the fastest growing states in terms of population is Florida. But at the same time, 50 years from now on a high emissions scenario, much of South Florida will be essentially unviable or extremely hurricane prone. So it will inevitably change. So what's more likely to happen is you'll see people leaving Florida and moving to other parts of the US So these are the types of things that, you know, our world becomes more topsy turvy as a result of climate change.

[00:12:48.16] 

It's interesting because I know that urbanization, people moving to cities, is one of the biggest trends, I think it's fair to say, of recent years, especially in developing countries. But you're saying that that is also a risk. There's heightened risk, especially in a lot of these cities that are coastal or flood prone or otherwise exposed to environmental hazards that could become more pronounced in coming years. So there's interesting tension, it seems like, in coming years between these two factors.

[00:13:15.21] 

Absolutely, yes. And it is one of these confounding factors, sort of a bad case scenario, if you will, in that, you know, the cities that are most rapidly growing around the world are typically in river valleys or in coastal plains, and those are precisely the locations that will become more dangerous in coming decades because of climate change. So we've got this, we've got this sort of two trends that are both moving in directions that could amplify the future in terms of people being displaced because of climate change.

[00:13:50.02] 

And so what kind of time frame are we looking at? In your analysis, you point to 2050 as a critical year. What's so special about 2050 or when are things going to happen?

[00:14:00.20] 

Yeah, the reason I point to that is because 2050 is sort of the point in time where scenarios start to diverge between now and 2050, there's a lot of opportunity to alter the pathway we're on in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. So embracing the accord, the Paris Agreement. But also, even if we don't, even if we fail to get our greenhouse gas emissions under control, the impacts, the physical impacts on things like storms and floods and droughts, they're pretty similar over the next 20 to 30 years. But where they really start to diverge depending on the emissions scenario is after 2050. So that window, 2050 to 2100, under a high emissions scenario, that's where we start to see an acceleration in the potential for people to be displaced because of extreme storms and floods and so on. Or conversely, if we do get our greenhouse gas emissions under control over the next decade or two, then we don't see a large change in global migration patterns because of climate change. So the divergence becomes very, very obvious in the scenarios beyond 2050, which isn't that far into the future. Certainly my own kid, she'll be around after 2050 and that's her future.

[00:15:19.20] 

And, and many of the children of the people who are listening to this podcast, and indeed many of the people listening to this podcast will still be around in 2050. And so it's not such a hypothetical or, or far off time horizon.

[00:15:32.11] 

But that's not necessarily like the deadline for policymakers, right? That is when these effects will start becoming clear. Like the deadline is sooner than that because of the way that emissions and things work, especially with regards to climate change.

[00:15:46.04] 

Absolutely. There's a lag time between, you know, burning a lump of coal today and how long that the greenhouse gas emissions from burning that lump of coal reside in the atmosphere. So, you know, carbon dioxide that we put in the atmosphere today is going to be there in future decades and it accumulates the other thing. So obviously that, you know, climate policies that we implement now, the sooner we do them, the greater longer term benefits we get from those, but also policies that we make in terms of sustainable development and indeed in migration, international migration policies as well. So one of the key things about climate and migration is that migration is just one of many potential outcomes or adaptations that people engage in when they're exposed to climate risks. So if you, if people are wealthier, if they have greater access to social and economic resources, they have a variety of options in terms of how they respond to climate change. And so they're less likely to have to be forced into scenarios where they need to move. If we think of American history, for example, and we think back to the 1930s and the dust bowl era of the Great Depression, hundreds of thousands of Americans had to move and migrate elsewhere from the Great Plains during that drought.

[00:17:05.09] 

We still get severe droughts on the Great Plains to this day, but they don't have the same migration impacts. And that's because governments have adapted their policies over the years. And people who live and work in the Great Plains, their livelihoods are different now. Than they were. So there's this inevitable change over time in our adaptive capacity. And so if we look at the global picture, if we can enhance the sustainability of economic development in what are currently low and middle income countries, we can reduce some of those, some of those climate migration risks in the future. But again, you need to make those sorts of decisions now to realize the payoff in coming decades.

[00:17:45.24] 

So we talked mostly here about climate and climate change and climate policies, but as you know, migration policy, this is the Migration Policy Institute, so that's obviously a thing we're very interested in. And socioeconomic policy, development policy more generally has a big impact here. I mean, so what kind of policies in particular or what kind of actions in particular can enhance the ability to adapt to climate change or to mitigate the impacts of climate changes that will affect forced movement in coming years?

[00:18:16.14] 

Well, this is where I think this particular study is innovative and it was requested by the Policy Institute, it was their idea to pursue this line of inquiry. And I think it's really thoughtful and innovative because up till now we haven't really thought about what are the implications of migration policy making on all of this. We've tended to focus on the physical and the climate policy and so on. And the way it works is this is it. Migration has, since World War II, there have been sort of ebbs and flows, if you will, in terms of how liberal governments have been in terms of receiving immigrants. So there have been decades when immigration has been encouraged. And more recently in the last decade or so, high income countries like the United States in the, in the European Union, Australia, have been actively trying to discourage migration and to control their borders, to shut them down and prevent people from entering. And if you look at the global migration picture, the dominant flows of migration around the world are labor market driven. So they're people moving to take advantage of jobs and economic opportunities. When you look at international migration and there's a huge demand for labor migrants in wealthier countries.

[00:19:32.15] 

And so there's an opportunity in all of this as well. When you look at the distribution of population around the world in coming decades, countries like Canada, the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia, their aging populations and shrinking populations in the second half of this century. Conversely, low income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia and parts of the Caribbean have rapidly growing populations with young people who will be looking for employment opportunities. And so there'll be this natural impetus, if you will, for people to move in coming decades from low income to high income countries. And so the decisions we make in terms of migration policy, are we going to encourage and manage those flows, or are we going to discourage and try to prevent those flows have a big impact on what happens in coming decades? And so if we think of migration as something that could be managed to the benefit of descending countries which will be highly exposed to climate risks, and the receiving countries that would definitely benefit from the additional skills and human capital those migrants bring, you can see it as a broader international policy initiative that could mitigate the long term impacts of climate change and build adaptive capacity around the world.

[00:20:52.23] 

So I guess it's a long way of saying that we need to stop thinking of migration policy as something distinct and separate from climate policy and development policy. We need to think of them as intertwined opportunities for fostering a more prosperous future for all of us.

[00:21:13.01] 

That's perhaps a great moment to lead this conversation on, but I really enjoyed this which was super interesting. Robert, thank you so much for coming on. I really appreciate you taking the time.

[00:21:21.23] 

Thanks. It's my pleasure.

[00:21:25.03] 

Robert McLeman is a professor in the Department of Geography at Wilfrid Laurier University and he is the author of the book Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges. He also has a TEDx talk called Beyond Environmental Refugees, which you can find online. The future, as always, is unwritten. There's a lot we don't know, but there are some things we do know. We know that climate events such as major storms, droughts, or rising sea levels can affect whether or not people move

[00:22:00.19] 

from their current home.

[00:22:01.24] 

We know that environmental policies can have an impact on the severity of those events. And we know that migration and economic policies can make it easier or more difficult for people to move, or can enable them to make adaptations and stay where they are. If you enjoyed this conversation, please check out other episodes of Changing Climate, Changing Migration. You can subscribe wherever you download your podcast from or through our website at migrationpolicy.org/podcasts. While you're there, you can also read Robert's report, which is very fittingly called How Will International Migration Policy and Sustainable Development Affect Future Climate Related Migration? Or check out our other articles about climate change and migration. Those are online at migrationpolicy.org/climate. And sign up for the Source newsletter to get expert analysis about migration in your inbox twice a month. This episode was produced by Kenia Guerrero and made possible by Julia Yanoff, Lisa Dixon and Michelle Mittelstadt. Our music is a song called Touch by Patrick Patrikios. My name is Julian Hattem. Thank you for listening.