Climate Change in the World’s Fastest Growing Economy

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CHAPTERS 

[00:00:03]: Guyana’s economic growth and changing migration patterns 

[00:01:44]: From emigration to immigration: labor demand and return migration 

[00:04:52]: Migration challenges: language barriers, trafficking, and service access 

[00:07:01]: Coastal vulnerability: flooding risks and future projections for Georgetown 

[00:10:20]: Climate impacts on migrants and host communities 

[00:22:07]: Migration and services during COVID-19: access and adaptation 

[00:24:45]: Policy lessons: migration governance, climate adaptation, and development 

TRANSCRIPT
[00:00:03.13] 

Hi and welcome back to Changing Climate, Changing Migration. This is a podcast from the Migration Policy Institute that speaks with experts about what climate change means for migration. My name is Julian Hattem. I'm your host and I'm also the editor of MPI's online magazine, the Migration Information Source. This podcast is part of a focus on climate change and migration, which also includes a special collection of articles. You can check those out online at migrationpolicy.org/climate. This episode is going to spend some time on a country that tends not to get a whole lot of Guyana. Guyana is a relatively small country in South America, nestled in between Venezuela and Brazil along the Caribbean coast. It's got a population of only about 800,000 people, which is more or less the same as the US City of San Francisco. But there are a couple of really interesting dynamics going on in Guyana. For one, it's sitting on a boatload of oil. Since offshore oil deposits were first discovered in 2015, Guyana has become the fastest growing economy in the world. And over the next decade, it could produce more oil per capita than any other country on the planet.

[00:01:20.22] 

Secondly, Guyana is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The vast majority of the population lives on the coast below sea level, so they're at risk of flooding and sea level rise and erosion. In fact, historically it was something of an environmental champion, in part because something like 85% of the country is covered in forest. Guyana says it's already achieved net zero carbon emissions. Finally, Guyana now suddenly seems to be transitioning from a country of primarily emigration to one of immigration. Part of this is because of the oil discoveries. Currently, there are about 500,000 Guyanese nationals abroad, but many of them could return as the economy booms, and meanwhile other migrants might come in. Also, it's right next door to Venezuela and not too far from Cuba and Haiti, which means it's had to respond to some of the millions of people, economic, political and natural disasters in these countries over the last couple of years. I should note that Guyana has not had to deal with as many humanitarian migrants as, say, Colombia, on the other side of Venezuela. But as I mentioned, it's also a heck of a lot smaller. So on a per capita basis there's been a significant inflow.

[00:02:35.22] 

My guest today wrote an article for the Migration Information Source about these issues and what they mean for the future of Guyana, and I am very excited to have them on today. Camila Idrovo is a program manager for the Migration Portfolio at the Pan American Development Foundation, and her colleague Jermaine Grant is the PADF Project Director in Guyana, Camila Jermaine. Thank you two so much for coming on. Great to have you.

[00:03:01.02] 

Thank you.

[00:03:01.14] 

Thank you for inviting us, Julian.

[00:03:04.01] 

So let's start with the big changing dynamics in Guyana. As I mentioned and as you two wrote, Guyana seems to be at a bit of a crossroads. The discovery of oil seems likely to attract a lot of new labor migrants, yet meanwhile a large population of vulnerable people fleeing the Venezuela, Cuba and Haiti, although some are just passing through temporarily I guess. How is Guyana responding to that change and what sort of challenges have there been so far?

[00:03:29.02] 

First and foremost, it must be established that migration is part of human development and Guyana is a migration nation. For decades, Guyana has been a country with negative net migration, as you would have alluded to your introduction, meaning more people going out than coming in to settle and work. And now Guyana has moved to a country of positive net migration, meaning more people coming to Guyana to settle and work than going out to settle and work in other countries. The effects of the of more outflow, while resulting in loss of skilled Guyanese or in this case brain drain has had a positive impact with the creation of diaspora overseas and those Guyanese sending home financial and non financial remittances. And just an example, according to the World bank in 2005 remittances made up 25% of Guyana's GDP gross domestic product due to the discovery of oil in commercial quantities in 2015. In Guyana, the demand for labor more so specialized labor migrants or workers. There has been an increased inflow of migrant workers and people movement to Guyana in search of work and business opportunities. This is compounded with inflow of vulnerable migrants and refugees as you would have alluded to.

[00:04:48.22] 

Thus the challenges include based on this increased inflow addressing language barriers with an increasing number of Spanish speaking migrants more so from Venezuela addressing cases of human trafficking and human smuggling since most of the vulnerable migrants coming from Venezuela are some are smuggled and many are victims of human trafficking. Responding to issues affecting indigenous war migrants in Region 1, which is a remote region that borders Venezuela and issues on wash speaks to issues on water, sanitation and hygiene and additional challenges and also opportunities for the government to respond to address issues and policy on migration management and migration government governance where there's need for policy and mechanism to streamline how we deal with the inflow of migrants into Guyana. So those are some of the few challenges and additional challenges in relation to questions when it comes to border management and maybe a more or improved border management system improvement in terms of Interagency coordinated response by the government on dealing with the inflow of Venezuelan migrants and work with international partners in the country such as PADF. So those are some of the few challenges and areas of opportunities in how the government can respond.

[00:06:12.11] 

You mentioned language, and I didn't mention this, but it's important to make clear Guyana is English speaking, right? Which, which is unique. And so you note the problem of the challenge of many Spanish speaking migrants coming into a nation that I think listeners should be aware of is not a Spanish speaking country, but is predominantly English speaking, right?

[00:06:30.09] 

Yes, that is true. And that is the first challenge for any migrant on arriving at the border is the ability to communicate and be understood. And if you do not speak the language of the country, that is automatically a barrier to integration and a barrier when it comes to getting all the required support and services on arrival and in the country itself.

[00:06:52.10] 

So what about climate change? What are the risks both now and in the future, I guess, both for migrants and for the native born Guyanese population?

[00:07:00.22] 

Well, Julian, as you mentioned, over 90% of Guyana's population lives in coastal areas which lie up to 1 meter below sea level. And this also happens to be where most of the agriculture and food production is located, making the country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Specifically, flooding due to high intensity rain and sea level rise, as well as soil salinization and periods of drought have already started to damage housing and road infrastructure and can cause real harm to Guyana's agriculture and food security. It is worth noting, for example, that a recent IMF report highlighted that inflation increased markedly since 2021 due to flooding and supply side disruptions as well as a continuing rising fuel and food prices.

[00:07:50.24] 

And you mentioned flooding. In the last couple of years there have been a couple major storms that have displaced thousands of people.

[00:07:57.21] 

Right?

[00:07:58.14] 

And I think I also read somewhere that Georgetown, Guyana's capital, is predicted to be entirely underwater by 2030. Could that be? I mean, how is the city defending itself? Or I guess what is the future hold?

[00:08:11.09] 

If you can predict, yes. So the last two years we've seen worried trends in regards to flooding. In May 2021, large parts of the country were flooded with all 10 administrative regions heavily affected and almost 30,000 households displaced. And again in May 2022, long term rainfall caused rivers to overflow, leading to flooding in regions 5, 9 and 10, with around 22,000 to 50,000 people affected. However, as you know, these numbers are really hard to quantify. So we expect that the actual number of people may be higher in regards to your question about whether Georgetown will be underwater or not, I think it's an interesting question and it will depend in our work towards climate action as well as the response from the Guyanese government. So Georgetown is one of nine cities worldwide forecasted to be underwater by 2030, according to modeling by Climate Central, which was based on a 2021 Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change report. So since most of the countries in coastland, including Georgetown, is underwater, the Guyanese have relied on a 280 mile seawall as well, extensive drainage systems built by the Dutch in the 1880s to prevent flooding. However, while both the seawall and the drainage systems have been repeatedly repaired over the years, no new infrastructure has been built yet that could withstand the impacts of climate change.

[00:09:46.01] 

So within Guyana's low carbon development strategy, there are plans to make investments to improve sea defense and drainage systems. However, these plans have yet to materialize. So unless adequate infrastructure is built and we're able to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius in order to avoid catastrophic climate impacts, including sea level rise, then it is possible that Georgetown could be on its way to be underwater by 2030. Although I think the exact date is hard to determine.

[00:10:20.05] 

Sure to some degree this is maybe an obvious question, but I guess what does all of this mean for immigrants? Integration? I mean, Jermaine, you talked about some of the challenges. How have those been exacerbated by climate change? And I mean, I guess what kind of conditions are many migrants living in now and what could those conditions look like in the future?

[00:10:38.03] 

I think first it must be established in terms of what are some of the integration challenges, some of which I would have alluded to in my introductory remarks. A significant amount of migrants in Guyana, as I would have mentioned, are Spanish speaking. Thus Spanish speaking migrants major barrier to integration is not knowing English. Guyana being an English speaking nation, this is even more worse for indigenous Huawei migrants that do not speak English and are often not socially and economically integrated into Guyanese society. So other than having Spanish speaking migrants from Venezuela, we have indigenous Warao from Venezuela that speak the Warao language and they are equally affected when it comes to integrating into Guyanese society. In the remote regions of Guyana, where there are often limited access to economic and livelihood opportunities for migrants, migrant women often resort to survival sex for food and housing. For indigenous Warao migrants, there are challenges where their livelihood conditions or their living conditions are poor since they live along waterways that make them susceptible to waterborne diseases due to poor sanitation. And hygiene. So this is just a context in relation to some of the integration challenges that migrants face.

[00:12:00.05] 

And in this case, we're speaking mostly of vulnerable migrants, not the usual economic migrants that people would be accustomed to. Now, on the question on the impact on climate change, indigenous Warao migrants that reside in the interior of Guyana are more on the front lines on the question of climate change, since they often reside on riverbanks and are constantly affected by high tide that cause dislocation, especially high tide that will result in flooding. For other migrants in Guyana, this would be all migrants, irrespective of if you're vulnerable or not. They will be equally affected, like Guyanese, because more than 80% of Guyana's population resides along the Atlantic coast. That is the most vulnerable, as my colleague Camila would have alluded to, due to, due to the coastline being below sea level. And we are only protected by what we call a seawall. So for those migrants, along with the local population, we are exposed to the question of climate change due to sea level rise. And Camila would have identified the question of if Georgetown would exist or not in a few years. So in regards to challenges to integration that can be exacerbated through climate change, I think the exacerbation would be on the question of the limited resources of the state to respond to the needs of all populations, including migrant populations.

[00:13:29.01] 

I think there will be a need for a disaster response plan to take into account the peculiarities and the challenges of all populations. And I think in this case, taking into account the challenges as it relates to migrant populations, and I think importantly is when it comes to language communication and having language communication tools and information to reach multiple populations in terms of disaster response, in terms of example, where one can locate a shelter, what to do or relocation plan, etc. So I think when it comes to the question of how the issue can be exacerbated, I think it starts, as would have mentioned earlier, what are some of the major barriers to migrant integration? And it starts with language and in this case, in having a natural disaster response plan. Taking into account the question of communication, having the desired communication tools and information to take into account migrants needs along with that of other populations, including the host population, being Guyanese.

[00:14:31.14] 

There's a really interesting irony here, which is that Guyana has long been considered, as I mentioned, a quote, unquote green champion that has advocated for environmental sustainability, and yet it's also poised to be a leading oil extractor and it's kind of facing some of the repercussions or the negative impacts of climate change, I guess. How can one of you make sense of that for me? I mean, is some of this money going to go towards climate adaptation measures? How do we reckon with this irony, if we can?

[00:15:03.19] 

So I think your question is very interesting because it shows the dynamic between developed and developing countries in relation to climate change. I think it's important to first look at Guyana's history as a green champion. Guyana is considered to be a carbon sink, meaning that it absorbs more carbon from the atmosphere and that it emits, as you mentioned, and also, as you said, 85% of the country's landmass is covered by forest, making it one of the most heavily forested countries in the world. So Guyana has for years advocated for global action against climate change and has repeatedly asked developed countries, which are the biggest carbon emitters, to financially support countries like Guyana to protect its forest and to adapt to climate change. So actually, in 2009, Guyana was able to make a deal with Norway to be paid 250 million doll to avoid deforestation. This agreement represented the first international financial commitment for Guyana's Low Carbon Development Strategy and was a first partnership of its kind between a developed and developing country. However, despite these efforts, Guyanese government officials have repeatedly criticized developed countries for not being ambitious enough in reducing their emissions and for not fulfilling their commitments on providing sufficient financing to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation efforts.

[00:16:27.05] 

So, for example, the Vice President of Guyana recently highlighted that developed countries have failed to provide 100 billion a year that they had committed to assist developing countries in addressing climate change. So developed countries have said that they will expect to fulfill this promise in the next year or so, but we'll see if this actually happens, because that promise was made back in 2009 and it still hasn't been fulfilled. So all of this to say is that as a result of the failings to deliver on climate justice for the Global South, who are the least responsible for the problem, but also the most affected by it, it is not surprising that Guyana has backed oil extraction as a way to achieving prosperity after they discovered massive oil deposit in their territory. So, According to the IMF, Guyana's growth could reach an incredible 58% this year, an amount which Guyanese officials say would not have ever been provided by developed countries to address climate change or their developing needs. And Guyanese leaders also argue that Guyana has a very, very small window of opportunity to extract as much wealth as possible from oil before the world fully transitions into cleaner sources of energy.

[00:17:45.08] 

So they say that a just transition should allow developing countries to meet the future oil demand during that transition, while more established oil producers and wealthier countries such as the US who have money to invest in newer technologies in cleaner energies, make the transition first. So I think to summarize though, it is very frustrating to see that Guyana fell into the allure of oil because we all know that we really can't afford to to expand fossil fuel extraction. It is also complicated to judge them given the lack of accountability and support from developed countries.

[00:18:23.14] 

Looking forward, I wonder if there is a risk that all of this oil money has negative impacts and creates a permanent underclass, particularly of migrants or of poor native born Guyanese. I'm thinking I feel like it's worth noting that many oil rich countries have been heavily criticized for their poor record on migrant rights, particularly I guess I'm here thinking of places like the Persian Gulf. Is that a concern as you see it in Guyana going forward?

[00:18:51.10] 

Yes, definite concern. As you mentioned, there are several risks to relying on oil revenues, even though it seems like a good opportunity for Guyana. First of all, I think it's important to mention that Guyana could face what economists call the resource curse, which is the tendency of resource rich countries to underperform economically despite and even perhaps of because of their natural resource wealth. And as seen in major oil producing developing countries such as Angola, Iraq, Libya and Venezuela, if oil wealth is not managed properly, Guyana could suffer from heightened inequality, instability, corruption and growing pressures on public resources and social systems. This could also have an impact on vulnerable migrants because they rely on basic services and government programs. And as the government becomes less accountable to citizens because most of the money is coming from the oil sector, they may be less interested in providing public goods since they're not really receiving much from other taxes and don't feel that accountable to the population. A second point that I wanted to make was that human trafficking, sex trafficking and labor exploitation, which I think Jermaine touched on, could be worsened with the transition to an oil economy as experienced by many migrant workers throughout the Middle East.

[00:20:14.03] 

So Guyana is especially at risk to this given that these practices are already pervasive within its extractive industries. According to the 2021 U.S. department of State Human Trafficking Report, in Guyana, trafficking victims are primarily migrants, young people from rural and indigenous communities and persons with low education levels engaged in work in mining, forestry, agriculture and domestic service. So with oil entering into the picture, a lot of human rights activists are worried that the problems that already exist within the country's mining communities may become even more widespread. And lastly, I think it is worth mentioning that as the world transitions away from fossil fuels, oil and gas reserves and the infrastructure related to this could become stranded assets, meaning that they could suffer from premature devaluations. And this can cause oil exporting countries to face significant loss in investment and revenue from public finances. So Guyana might not actually see as much wealth as it expects and could face considerable political, social and economic turmoil if it exposes itself to these risks and fails to secure an orderly and just transition for the domestic fossil fuel industry. And all of this without getting into all of the environmental risks that we touched on at the beginning and the risks from flooding and other impacts of climate change.

[00:21:48.11] 

We only have a couple minutes left, but I want to ask what, if anything, has changed over the pandemic? You've seen throughout South America a good bit of onward migration, particularly of Venezuelans and Haitians, sometimes people moving for the the second or third time. Has anything changed in Guyana and if so, what?

[00:22:07.12] 

Well, there have not been much significant changes. I just think contextually the first change recognized during the pandemic is that there was a reduced inflow of migrants to Guyana due to the closure of ports of entry. There was also limited access to employment and livelihood opportunities due to the economic downturn at that time during COVID for vulnerable migrants, there would have been an increase in human smuggling of Venezuelan migrants through land and sea borders into Guyana and many were affected by the COVID-19 contagion or virus and they were able to access vaccines and personal protective equipment PPEs during distribution campaigns by the Ministry of health and local NGOs. And they would have also been provision of public health information in English and Spanish for Spanish speaking migrants. But what would have changed contextually based on what would have happened during COVID and after that would have been the impact as it relates to the provision of online service to meet the needs of migrants and refugees. This included, for example, access to ESL or English as a Second Language classes or courses online and many of this was provided by the Pan American Development Foundation and local NGOs.

[00:23:19.20] 

Further, there was the increased use of social media as an effective tool when it comes to spreading information of how migrants can access migratory services, more so to regularize their status in country and other protection mechanism and to access livelihood and employment opportunities in Guyana. And further, a lot of these information would have been provided in English and Spanish to meet the needs of Spanish speaking migrants in the country. And when I say Spanish speaking migrants, I wish to emphasize we don't only have a lot of Venezuelans in Guyana. We have Cuban nationals, nationals from from Panama and the Dominican Republic. Most of those nationals are economic migrants and since US Embassy in Guyana is now a focal point for Cubans to process their immigrant and non immigrant visa applications and increase earnings of those country nationals to travel to Guyana, there's an increased number of Spanish speaking migrants outside of just Venezuelan. So those would have been some of the changes due to the pandemic in terms of provision of online services to be the needs of and the provision of information other than just in English to meet the growing population of migrants in Guyana and also where possible French for Haitian migrants that are also in Guyana.

[00:24:44.00] 

Interesting. We're about out of time, but I guess I want to leave with one last question. As I mentioned, Guyana is a small country that we don't often hear about, but I guess what what is instructive about what's going on there? What lesson can those of us who don't live in Guyana learn from its experiences?

[00:25:02.14] 

Well, I would think in the context of migration and climate change, I think it must be established that Guyana, regionally in the context of CARICOM, has been leading the conversation for many years on the question of climate change. I think before it used to be called the context of the conversation was on sustainable development and now we're trying to balance our green footprint in relation to now being an oil producing state. Historically, Guyana has been a contributor to the international effort on conversation on forest conservation which is linked to the question of climate change since the Rio Summit in 1992. Thereafter we would have set up a center in the center of Guyana's forest called Iwokrama Center for Rainforest Conservation and Development. We would have passed legislation that addressed the question of rainforest conservation and there's a national protected area system of rainforests in Guyana that serves to protect endangered species and other flora and fauna efforts when it comes to responsible mining, especially as it relates to the non use of mercury to alleviate the pollution of our waterways, especially in indigenous communities. And as Camila would have alluded to, on the question of the low carbon development strategy for low carbon economy in Guyana, where Guyana promotes responsible good practice and is being incentivized.

[00:26:25.06] 

So I think Guyana's environmental and green advocacy and trajectory will not change. We are green state and we remain a green state. And I think as a small state, Guyana's experience and good practice can be an example to the world. More so developed countries, more so currently also during the Conference of Parties COP27 meeting on climate change in Egypt. So we have been a model for many years. We have been consistent in that regard. Oil will not change our interests and our advocacy on the environment. Camila highlighted the challenges in that regard when we incentivize and develop countries sticking to their commitment. But nonetheless we are a green state. We will remain a green state. And I'm sorry I say we because I'm a Guyanese and I know of our efforts in that regard as a researcher and I think that is our example to the world.

[00:27:22.03] 

I think that's going to bring us to the end of our discussion today. But thank you so much for coming on. This was a super interesting conversation. Guyana is a country I admit I didn't know a whole lot about before, but I know a little bit about now and I am very fascinated by. So thank you. I really appreciate your insights.

[00:27:39.15] 

Thank you so much for having us.

[00:27:41.07] 

Thank you very much. It's a pleasure.

[00:27:42.20] 

Camila Idrovo is a Program Manager for the Pan American Development foundation and Jermaine Grant is the Project Director on Guyana. Their article in the Migration Information Source, which was co written by Julia Yanoff and is titled Discovery of Oil Could Bring Migrant Labor Opportunities and Climate Displacement Challenges for Guyana. You can find it online at migrationpolicy.org/climate. Thank you for tuning in to Changing Climate, Changing Migration. If you enjoyed our conversation with Camila and Jermaine, please subscribe on your podcast service of choice. And while you're there, please leave us a review. You can find all of the episodes for this and every other MPI podcast online at migrationpolicy.org/podcasts. Keep up with MPI by following us on social media. You can find us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram. And if you'd like to share any thoughts, questions or criticism, please send me an email at [email protected]. This episode was produced by Yoseph Hamid and made possible with help from Lisa Dixon and Michelle Mittelstadt. Our theme music is called Touch by Patrick Patrikios. I'm Julian Hattem. Thank you again.