From Temporary Climate-Induced Displacement to Permanent Urban Settlement in Pakistan

Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and related disasters, including severe floods, droughts, sea-level rise, and extreme heat. Several major floods have occurred in Pakistan since the 1950s, and the 2010 and 2022 floods were some of the most destructive in the country’s history.

These disasters have led to widespread losses of life, devastation, and large-scale displacement—especially in rural areas where water shortages are acute, many communities depend on agriculture, and infrastructure is likely to become damaged.

Nearly 1,990 people lost their lives in the 2010 floods, according to the country’s National Institute of Disaster Management, and 17,600 villages were affected.  Twelve years later, about 1,740 people died, 6,630 villages were affected, and 7.9 million people were displaced due to the 2022 floods.  One-third of Pakistan was under water, in what is now considered the most devastating disaster in Pakistan’s history. Losses were nationwide, but highest in Sindh province in the southeast, where 7.2 million were displaced. Most recently, floods in 2025 displaced 3 million people, with northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northeastern Punjab the most affected provinces. In all, 28.7 million people were displaced internally by disasters between 2008 and 2025, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).

Many popular voices suggest that the people fleeing these kinds of disasters would likely go internationally, such as to Europe, or else be displaced only for a short time before returning home. In reality, however, most climate‑related movement does not cross international borders, since displaced people rarely have the financial resources to migrate abroad, especially after losing homes, land, and livestock. Moreover, many are reluctant to return to their rural communities where they fear disasters may strike again.

As a result, many people have settled permanently in large cities such as Karachi, the coastal capital of Sindh province and the largest city in the country. As climate change impacts increase, Karachi is projected to be the destination for up to 2.4 million climate migrants by 2050.

This article examines experiences of people displaced by environmental change in Pakistan. Based on research by the author in Karachi, it offers insights into why migrants have remained in the city and the challenges they have faced.

Temporary Displacement to Permanent Settlement

Research on climate migration often finds that migration related to rapid-onset events such as flooding is of short distance and temporary, as many individuals return once the disaster is over. Yet many people who had been displaced to Karachi stayed for good.

The author visited five communities of climate-induced migrants who migrated amid both floods and slower-onset seawater intrusion into agricultural land (see Box 1). Of the 26 people interviewed, almost none expressed intention to return to their place of origin or migrate internationally. While this research would not have captured the experiences of displaced people who had already returned to their origin communities, it suggests that a sizable amount of permanent settlement has already occurred. Indeed, interviewees emphasized their desire to remain in Karachi. One man who migrated from Qambar Shahdadkot District of Sindh province, approximately 450 kilometers (280 miles) from Karachi, after the 2022 floods described: “I will not go back to the village again. I will die here and my graveyard will be here. I will never return because the flood damaged and destroyed everything.”

Another migrant in the same settlement shared a similar sentiment: “Even if my house were rebuilt, I would not go back. I have migrated three times, and my concrete house collapsed. I don’t want to go back.” He explained that he had no intention of moving elsewhere because of financial constraints. “We don’t want to go anywhere. We don’t have any money. We don’t want to leave this place.”

A third individual, displaced by the 2010 floods, described his informal settlement as both his home and his final resting place: “We want to stay here. We have no land in our village and none here. We will die and be buried here. This is our home.”

In some cases, repeated displacement transformed into long-term settlement. Another man first moved to Karachi after the 2010 floods, after several months returned home to Dadu District about 270 kilometers (170 miles) away, rebuilt his house, and then following the 2022 floods migrated back to the same settlement in Karachi. “Once we were here, we had no intention of returning,” he said. “I thought if floods keep coming, we will face problems again and again, so it is better to make everything here.” For him, the decision not to return was shaped not only by repeated floods and crop losses but also by indebtedness to the landlord on whose land he worked as a farmer, as well as poor relations with landlords in his village. “We don’t want to go back to our villages. There we face problems with crops, the landlords’ slavery, and the repetition of heavy rains.”

A similar sentiment was shared by people who had left amid slow‑onset environmental change, particularly rising sea levels, water shortages, or salinization along the coast in Sindh. One interviewee from Keti Bandar in Thatta District, in the Indus River Delta, roughly 150 kilometers (90 miles) southeast of Karachi, explained: “There is no livelihood in the village anymore. Saline water is eating the land. Even drinking water is not available… We don’t want to return because there are no livelihood opportunities there.”

Another migrant also from Keti Bandar living in the same settlement in Karachi, said: “My native area is destroyed. This is the only place we have. We will live and die here.” More than 462 square kilometers (178 square miles) of the Keti Bandar area were reportedly under the sea as of 2025.

Why Karachi Is the Main Destination

Because Pakistanis displaced by climate disasters often come from rural households that have lost their homes, land, and livestock during floods or experienced the loss of agricultural land and livelihoods due to seawater intrusion, they tend to lack the financial means or ability to access legal pathways to migrate internationally. Additionally, increased border controls and surveillance have made irregular migration to Europe or other high-income destinations even more difficult. Depending on the route and destination, it can cost up to U.S. $23,000 for a Pakistani migrant to reach Europe irregularly.

EU asylum data confirm the lack of a direct link between Pakistan’s major floods and irregular migration to Europe. Asylum applications by Pakistanis in Member States of the Common European Asylum System peaked at around 45,900 in 2016 and fluctuated since then, most recently falling to 19,100 in 2025. These fluctuations reflect changes in factors such as employment opportunities, political stability, and economic conditions in Pakistan, not flood events.

Instead, migrants often turn to Karachi, which has a population estimated to exceed 20 million and is Pakistan’s largest economic hub. The megacity has long been known as a destination for migrants, including those from other countries and internal migrants. In addition to climate factors, many have been driven to the city for financial reasons, amid Pakistan’s years-long economic crisis. Estimates suggest more than half of Karachi’s population live in informal settlements, known as Katchi Abadis. Climate‑induced migrants are a recent and growing group, many of whom are farmers, agricultural laborers, or small landholders who have lost their homes or other assets, often to floods. A significant number have created urban informal settlements in Karachi, both along the coast of the Arabian Sea and in inland areas of the city.

Karachi will likely remain a major hub for climate‑induced migrants, although there are no official statistics on the current population. In 2024, C40 Cities and the Mayors Migration Council projected that Karachi could receive as many as 2.4 million internal climate migrants by 2050—more than most other global cities surveyed. In 2019, Muhammad Ali Shah, chair of the nongovernmental Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum, claimed that around 1.2 million people had migrated to the city from areas in Pakistan’s southeast. He estimated that more than 14,100 square kilometers (nearly 5,500 square miles) of land had been lost to seawater intrusion since 1947.

What Migrants Say about Karachi

People fleeing floods had several reasons for choosing Karachi as their destination, they told the author, including the absence of major flooding in the city (although some flooding still persists; see below). The perception of better economic opportunities and the complete loss of migrants’ homes and livelihoods in their villages were also cited.

One woman explained that despite the challenges of living in Karachi, returning home was not an option: “Even if things are tough here, we have little or more livelihood here, back home there is nothing.” For many, the city is not simply a refuge from disaster; it is the only place where survival feels possible.

Challenges in New Homes

Arriving in Karachi is not the end of vulnerability—including environmental exposure—for climate-induced migrants. Many large cities in South Asia and elsewhere have long struggled with rapid urbanization, and the challenges have only become more severe due to the impacts of climate change. Climate-induced migrants in Karachi face new and familiar challenges, including lack of access to drinkable water, electricity, health care, education, and work, as well as the risk of eviction and environmental threats such as cyclones, heat waves, and heavy rains.

High Costs of Water

Many households in Karachi, particularly those in informal settlements, face a scarcity of potable water or only expensive options to obtain it. While some households had intermittent access to government water lines, most climate-induced migrants—especially those in inland informal settlements—lacked this access and so relied largely on purchasing water from private merchants with tankers. The marketplace of private water tankers in Karachi is intense, and the commercial networks are often referred to as the “water mafia” or “tanker mafia.”

One man from an inland settlement expressed the urgency of the situation: “We desperately need water. We don’t want anything else. We don’t want food, we just want water.” Depending on family size, some households spend significant portions of their income on water—roughly 450 to 500 rupees (about $1.60 to $1.80) per day, in a country where 45 percent of the population lives on less than $3 per day.

When tanker water is delayed or unaffordable, women and children often bear the responsibility of fetching water from nearby neighborhoods. These journeys can be long and arduous, and some individuals experience physical pain from the strain of carrying water back and forth. In some households, cultural norms prevent women from fetching water, shifting the burden to children.

Lack of Electricity and Heat Waves

Electricity shortages and extreme heat were another major challenge, as migrants described long hours without power during Karachi’s increasingly intense heat waves. Earlier this year, temperatures in the city reached 44°C (111°F), the highest since 2018, amid a record heat wave that swept through South Asia. Unable to power fans or other devices to stay cool, many have been forced into dangerous situations. On a single day this May, at least ten people in Pakistan died from heat-related complications.

“In summers, when we have electricity we sleep inside,” said one woman, “but when there is no electricity, we sleep upstairs [on the roof] where mosquitoes bite us.” In these settlements, especially during summer, some families reported staying awake throughout the night due to the heat and lack of ventilation.

Exposure to Heavy Rain

Even after migrating to Karachi, migrants remain exposed to heavy rain and flooding—the same hazards that forced many to migrate in the first place. Monsoons can sometimes overwhelm informal settlements, forcing people to evacuate their homes. One man in an inland settlement recalled: “During my 15 years here, three times we were forced to leave the house because of rainwater. We lived on the road [in temporary roadside shelter] for three or four days until the water receded.”

Others explained that water can accumulate quickly and drain slowly, creating flood‑like conditions inside peoples’ homes. “If it rains for 15 days, water stays for 15 days,” another resident said. “During the 2022 floods, water accumulated here.” A woman from a coastal settlement described how her household’s beds would get wet every time it rained.

In response, families have improvised methods to protect their homes, but these efforts often fail. One man explained, “During rain I try to block the street water from entering through some obstacles, but still the house comes under water.” In the coastal settlements, residents also expressed fear of rising sea levels, with one man noting, “Sea level may rise, but Allah can save us from the situation.”

Eviction

The risk of eviction was a constant source of fear, particularly in two of the three inland settlements which are not officially recognized by the government as residential areas. In one inland settlement established by climate-induced migrants who arrived after 2010 floods, residents described facing repeated eviction threats from local authorities. One woman explained, “They visited us three times and told us to vacate the place.”

These tensions can turn violent. A 2023 operation by the Malir Development Authority (MDA), an affordable housing provider, targeting residents of an inland settlement established on government land in 2022 due to floods turned deadly after residents allegedly fired shots at police, who said they responded with tear gas. A child of 8 or 9 years old was killed during this incident. One resident recalled confronting officials: “Police and MDA came here. I asked them, ‘Tell me where I should go if you evict us.’ After the riots, no one came again, but we still fear someone will come one day and ask us to leave.”

In the other settlement, also established in 2022 due to floods, residents reported that eviction demands were strongest in the early years after climate-induced migrants arrived, although this pressure often came from local “land grabbers” rather than government officials.

Health and Education

Lack of access to adequate health services and education was also a major concern for climate-induced migrants in Karachi. Residents seeking these services described long travel, high transportation costs, and unaffordable private health clinics. Many migrants said public hospitals were far, overcrowded, or lacked medicine, while private facilities were too expensive. As a woman explained, “We don’t have any hospital or doctor here. We go to private doctors when needed, but there is no government hospital in this entire locality.”

Some communities have attempted to fill these gaps themselves. In one inland settlement, a resident offered a room in his house for a visiting doctor, but the initiative collapsed after three months because, as he put it, “people here are poor and they even can’t afford his fees.” In another settlement, a small clinic provided basic health services but for more and better services, residents had to rely on rickshaws or other means to reach the nearest government hospital in Hub, approximately 7 kilometers (4 miles) away. Elsewhere, residents turned to charity‑based clinics when medicines were unavailable in public facilities.

Education access was similarly limited. Several settlements lacked functioning community schools; where public schools existed in surrounding areas, residents complained about unreliable teachers, overcrowding, or long walks to get to school. “Teachers are not regular. Sometimes they come, sometimes they don’t,” said one mother. In another settlement, the only community school was destroyed during the 2023 riots mentioned above, forcing parents to send their children to a government school a half‑hour away. Another settlement had only a small school for primary classes, leaving older children without options within the settlement.

Finding Work

Finding work in Karachi was a challenge for many new arrivals, particularly those who had no social contacts or were unfamiliar with the city. People with fishing experience largely settled in the coastal settlements in Karachi, enabling them to work directly or indirectly in the fishing or seashell processing industries. One woman from Kharo Chan, more than 100 kilometers (62 miles) away, explained that her husband had been a landlord but after migrating to Karachi due to seawater intrusion he began making fish nets. Her sons worked as fishermen, using other people’s boats.

In contrast, residents of the inland settlements often shifted from agricultural and farming livelihoods to become urban wage laborers in the Sabzi Mandi (fruit and vegetable market), on construction sites, in factories, in restaurants, or in some cases as security guards and watchmen. For example, one man from Qambar Shahdadkot District of Sindh, who had previously been a landowner, described the economic decline he experienced after migrating to Karachi: As a watchman, he now earned about 12,000 to 13,000 rupees (about $43 to $47) per month, down from as much as 600,000 rupees ($2,155) annually as a landlord.

For many climate-induced migrants, securing work initially required recommendations or even guarantees from community leaders, as employers were often reluctant to hire newcomers whom they did not know or trust. As one man explained, “At the initial stage there was guarantee-type issues, but then things settled down.”

Are Cities Prepared?

Having lost their homes, agricultural land, livestock, and livelihoods, and fearing recurring floods and advancing seawater intrusion, a significant number of rural Pakistanis impacted by climate change are resettling permanently elsewhere in Pakistan, particularly in large cities such as Karachi. They move in search of safety and better opportunities, but upon arrival often face new and familiar layers of vulnerability, including water scarcity, heat stress, flooding, eviction threats, and limited access to health and education.

These realities from Karachi challenge narratives, including alarmist ones, of mass cross‑border climate migration. Instead, it is clear that much climate migration remains internal and involves long distances to major cities. Ostensible displacement due to fast-onset disasters can result in permanent migration to cities that themselves are overpopulated, have deeply fragile systems for providing education and other services, and are exposed to climate events such as heat waves and heavy rains.

Looking ahead, major cities in Pakistan and elsewhere will receive even more people displaced by floods, sea-level rise, droughts, and other climate events. This raises an urgent question: Will cities such as Karachi be prepared to support them? Planning for this future requires shifting attention away from imagined mass flows to Europe or North America and toward the lived realities of those rebuilding their lives within the urban centers of Pakistan and other countries on the front lines of climate change.

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