Climate Change in Bangladesh Shapes Internal Migration and Movement to India

Bangladesh is the origin of the sixth-largest migrant population worldwide, and migration to neighboring India forms one of the world’s largest migration corridors. In 2021, 7.4 million Bangladeshi migrants lived abroad, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Moreover, Bangladesh experiences high levels of internal migration from rural areas to cities, particularly Dhaka, the capital, which absorbs as many as 400,000 new migrants yearly.

Much of this movement is for economic reasons, and the large number of workers abroad has helped turn Bangladesh into one of the world’s largest remittance-receiving countries, with an estimated $22.2 billion arriving via formal channels in 2023, according to the World Bank. But environmental degradation and climate change, which increase the likelihood and impact of natural disasters and resource scarcity, are other factors driving or accelerating emigration. Bangladesh is rated as facing the ninth-largest climate risk globally, according to the 2023 WorldRiskReport. Flooding and high winds connected to storms such as Cyclones Sitrang (in 2022) Amphan (2020), Mora (2017), Komen (2015), and Aila (2009) have prompted massive death tolls and billions of dollars of damage. Melting glaciers in the Himalayas send water rushing downstream into Bangladesh’s deltas. By 2050, rising sea levels could lead to a loss of more than one-seventh of the country’s land area and nearly one-third of its food production, the International Monetary Fund predicts. In 2023 alone, the country lost 178 square kilometers of forest cover. Much of its freshwater wetlands are degraded. The country’s geographical location, relatively low elevation, population growth, and high density mean that climate impacts can be particularly devastating.

In this context, impacts to economic, social, and political activities can disrupt lifestyles and livelihoods, and make some places uninhabitable֫ or undesirable—sparking climate migration. Most of this movement is internal; disasters displaced people within Bangladesh 14.7 million times from 2014 to 2023, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, and many people likely also moved in response to slow-moving impacts such as sea-level rise. By 2050, the World Bank predicts there may be as many as 19.9 million internal Bangladeshi climate migrants.

Given the history of cross-border movement, it seems all but certain that climate migration from Bangladesh to India is also growing, although much of it is difficult to track. In previous years, as many as 20 million people overall are believed to have migrated annually from Bangladesh to India.

Considering climate migration is a growing phenomenon and there are unique vulnerabilities in South Asia, this article explores the relationship between climate change and migration from Bangladesh to India, neighbors with many similarities dating to British colonization. Despite the history of migration, Bangladeshis often encounter challenges in India, and the Indian government has at times made inflammatory claims about unauthorized Bangladeshi immigration.

Push and Pull Factors for Migration from Bangladesh to India

The eighth-most populous country in the world, Bangladesh had a population of approximately 170 million as of the 2022 census. Over the past few decades, the nation has experienced rapid economic growth on the back of industries such as textile manufacturing and natural resources, with the poverty rate dropping sharply from 43.5 percent in 1991 to 14.3 percent in 2016. Despite this progress, Bangladesh is still classified as a lower-middle-income country, and economic development has not been matched by sufficient creation of good-quality, formal, higher-wage jobs for the many young people entering the labor market. This mismatch was one factor in the protests that eventually forced long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign her office and flee the country in August 2024. In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 750,000 workers emigrated annually from Bangladesh, according to the World Bank, with the annual number of labor migrants reaching 1 million in 2017; after a brief pandemic-related decline, emigration is again at record highs, with 1.3 million migrants leaving in 2023.

The drivers of emigration vary and are primarily connected to economic circumstances, but climate change is playing a role that is only likely to intensify. In 2020, for instance, Cyclone Amphan caused 2.4 million people to be evacuated and killed 26. Most people return to their homes after an evacuation, but some may find their property destroyed or, after years of repeated evacuations, may look to live elsewhere. The consequences of natural disasters are multifaceted and can affect areas such as supply of food and natural resources, social dynamics, the economy and employment, and a community’s ability to adapt to future events. For example, if a catastrophe deprives people of housing or necessities such as food and drinking water, the situation may push them to seek safer and more stable environs.

Historical Migration Patterns

Since their country’s independence in 1971, Bangladeshis have migrated worldwide. Saudi Arabia (home to 1.3 million Bangladeshi emigrants as of mid-2020 according to UN estimates), the United Arab Emirates (1.1 million), and other Middle Eastern countries are common recent destinations due to economic opportunities and job stability, as are places such as Malaysia (416,000), the United States (261,000), and the United Kingdom (242,000).

But India, with an estimated 2.5 million Bangladeshi emigrants in 2020, is the most common destination. As a larger country with a bigger economy, India offers different economic and academic opportunities. Its technology, agriculture, and other sectors are growing, with promises of paychecks to migrants.

Yet the reasons for emigration to India are not purely economic. Aside from Bangladesh’s short border with Myanmar, the country is surrounded by India, and the shared 4,096-kilometer (2,545-mile) border facilitates migration. Cultural, religious, and historical connections have also driven mobility. Before the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan (including Bangladesh, then known as East Pakistan), the two countries were united in one territory, and millions found themselves torn between both countries after the split. Many Bangladeshis have families and other ties in India. The countries' shared history is reflected culturally, too; Kolkata and the Indian state of West Bengal share remarkable similarities with Bangladeshi art, poetry, and music. Bengali, the major language of Bangladesh, is widely spoken in many parts of India. Even long after independence, these familiar characteristics have contributed to migrants’ movement.

Still, religious practices differentiate the two countries. While India and Bangladesh have both Hindu and Muslim practitioners, India is predominantly Hindu while Bangladesh is overwhelmingly Muslim. This religious distinction has contributed to migration, specifically among the Bangladeshi Hindu community, with many members choosing to move to India in search of greater cultural and religious affinity. However, immigration of Muslims in India has been a contentious issue that has had political and legal consequences and led to international debates and protests. In India, there has been a growing trend of discrimination against Muslims, including those from Bangladesh.

Challenges for Immigrants in India

Migration involves various challenges, especially for people moving because of negative impacts of climate change. Immigrants may suffer anxieties about their legal status (or lack thereof), economic incorporation, and personal beliefs. Those without legal status may be vulnerable to deportation and exploitation by employers, and even those with authorization may face barriers accessing a new country's legal, educational, and health-care systems.

The Indian government has previously claimed that as many as 20 million Bangladeshi immigrants were living in the country without authorization—which would comprise the world’s largest such population by far—but has not offered evidence to support the assertion. In recent years, a pair of governance changes have intensified tensions and created significant hurdles for Bangladeshi migrants and their children: the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the state of Assam’s National Register of Citizens (NRC).

The CAA was passed in 2019 and implemented on March 11, 2024. This law amended the Citizenship Act of 1955 to allow immigrants—including those who are unauthorized—from neighboring Muslim-majority Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan to obtain expedited Indian nationality so long as they were persecuted religious minorities of the Buddhist, Christian, Hindu, Jain, Parsi, or Sikh faiths. Muslims were not included in this law. Previously, religion was not a determining factor in obtaining citizenship; anyone applying for naturalization had to prove 11 years of legal residence in India. The new requirements allow persecuted members of the other religions to obtain citizenship after five years of residence, with or without proof of legal status.

This distinction between religions has prompted deadly protests as well as international concern about discrimination against Muslims. Rights groups such as Amnesty International have argued that such regulations are contrary to India’s constitutional values of equality and nondiscrimination. Defenders say the change is necessary to protect persecuted minorities.

In addition to the CAA, Assam’s NRC of 2019 also increased anxiety among Bangladeshi immigrants and Muslims in India. The register was intended to address concerns about immigration in the northeastern state by seeking to identify immigrants without legal status or those who had arrived irregularly since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, as well as their descendants. It involved a complex citizenship verification process, forcing individuals to provide extensive documentation to prove their Indian ancestry. For Bangladeshi immigrants, this posed a challenge, as many lacked the necessary documentation or had difficulty obtaining it, exposing them to being considered illegal residents and robbing them of the possibility of legal recognition. Approximately 1.9 million people were unable to prove their ancestral residence and were excluded from the final version of the NRC, leaving their citizenship in jeopardy. The national government had previously pushed to expand the process nationwide.

Moreover, the challenges of Bangladeshi migration to India are compounded by the social exclusion that many Muslims encounter in their daily lives amid the Hindu nationalism that has become mainstream with the rise of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Muslims report facing discrimination and religious prejudice, which can translate into unequal treatment and sometimes violence for the native born and immigrants alike. From May 2015 to December 2018, for instance, at least 44 people were killed in mob attacks by people seeking to protect cows, which are seen as sacred to Hindus; 36 of the dead were Muslims. This year, anti-Muslim attacks were recorded in different areas in the weeks following elections that saw an unexpected decrease in power for the BJP. Some Muslims reportedly avoid eating beef, as it is a crime in some states, and have even changed their names to protect themselves. Marginalization is evident in places such as Delhi, India’s capital, where many Muslim residents expect to be neglected by the state. For people such as these, lack of legal documentation leaves them vulnerable to exploitation and limits their access to essential services such as education and medical care. Many live in precarious conditions, often in slums with limited access to clean water and sanitation.

Considering the above, immigrants’ anxieties can increase, especially when they lack legal status, their beliefs are not respected, and their security is threatened. The discrimination against Muslims manifests in various aspects, including economic and political representation, access to opportunities, and the overall security and well-being of the community.

Climate Migration Adaptation and Strategies

Because of the country’s climate vulnerability, the Bangladeshi government has been at the forefront of international efforts to include measures related to migration in its environmental change responses. Government and international funding has sought to target climate-vulnerable communities such as those along the coast, encouraging construction of sturdy buildings and creating sustainable livelihood opportunities. The government and development groups have tried to direct internal migration to secondary cities such as the port city Mongla and push new arrivals into industrial jobs. For these types of efforts, former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Patrick Verkooijen, who together lead the Global Center on Climate Adaptation, have called Bangladesh “a global pioneer in preparing for climate migrants.”

Although climate change often leads to internal rather than international relocation, individuals’ reasons for migration are complex, and international movement to India occurs for a variety of reasons, not just climate-related pressures. Currently, there are no international agreements on the status of people displaced internationally by climate change.

India in 2022 introduced the Climate Migrants (Protection and Rehabilitation) Bill 2022, an effort to address the escalating issue of climate migration. The bill, which did not pass Parliament, would have established legal protections and supports for climate migrants, whom it defined as people or a group forcibly displaced due to climate-induced factors—although it is unclear whether the legislation was intended for internal or international migrants. Moreover, the bill promoted creating interdepartmental climate migration authorities to protect and address challenges regarding climate migration. The idea was to provide a complete set of supports to climate migrants, for example, by guaranteeing them employment, access to education, and mental health protection. Although the legislation stalled, it was an indication that government leaders are beginning to consider the issue.

A Climate-Vulnerable Country

Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to environmental challenges such as cyclones, floods, and rising sea levels, aggravating displacement pressures. Climate predictions are not optimistic for the country. At the same time, Bangladesh is host to the largest refugee camp in the world, with more than 671,000 mostly Rohingya refugees from Myanmar in the Kutupalong camp in the southeast district of Cox’s Bazar. Because many refugees live in flimsy shelters with little protection, they are often at extreme risk of climate change impacts.

Climate change is a factor in internal migration within Bangladesh and international migration to India, and also provides context for broader movement. Environmental change can compound long-standing migration pressures dating back to the period of British colonization, including culture, family reunification, and religious persecution. Migrants’ concerns are often multidimensional, and those crossing borders without authorization may be unable to obtain formal employment or health care and fear legal persecution. In addition, the challenges Muslims in India have experienced in recent years are an international concern. While efforts such as the Climate Migrants (Protection and Rehabilitation) Bill 2022 suggest the Indian government is beginning to consider the regional ramifications of climate change, recent regulations linked to the CAA suggest that policy is likely to make immigration difficult for Muslims.

As the impacts of climate change grow more extreme, Bangladesh’s pronounced vulnerability will continue to prompt people to leave their homes in search of safety and a better life. For many, India may seem like a solution. However, this migration will also bring challenges, as both nations grapple with resources and integration against a complex religious, political, and societal backdrop. Ultimately, addressing the root causes of climate change is essential to mitigate displacement and foster sustainable futures for those affected.

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