Thinking Regionally to Compete Globally: Leveraging Migration and Human Capital in the U.S., Mexico, and Central America This final report by the Regional Migration Study Group outlines the powerful demographic, economic, and social forces reshaping Mexico and much of Central America and changing longstanding migration dynamics with the United States. The Study Group, co-chaired by former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo, former US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, and former Guatemalan Vice President and Foreign Minister Eduardo Stein, offers a forward-looking, pragmatic agenda for the United States, Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras - focusing on new collaborative approaches on migration and human-capital development to strengthen regional competitiveness. Download Report | Study Group Home | Press Release | Resumen Ejecutivo (en español) | Aviso de Prensa
Mexican Migration to the United States: Underlying Economic Factors and Possible Scenarios for Future Flows By Daniel Chiquiar and Alejandrina Salcedo
The recent history of Mexican migration to the United States is one marked by high flows during the 1990s that reached a peak in 2000 and then dropped, plummeting sharply with softening of the US construction sector in 2007 and onset of the recession the following year. What will migration from Mexico to the United States look like in the future? This report by two economists examines economic factors that have influenced contemporary flows and offers scenarios on how such flows could evolve over the next several years. Download Report | Spanish-Language Brief
Strengthening Health Systems in North and Central America: What Role for Migration? By Allison Squires and Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez
International nurse migration is a multibillion-dollar global phenomenon. Historically, Mexicans and Central Americans have not played a significant part in the migration of nurses to the United States. This report examines the health care sector in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and the United States, reviewing their health care systems, demand for services, epidemiological profiles, and demographics. Using migration to meet health care demand is complex; it does, however, hold the potential for benefits to health care systems, economies, and patient outcomes. Download Report | Spanish-Language Brief
Ripe with Change: Evolving Farm Labor Markets in the United States, Mexico, and Central America By Philip Martin and J. Edward Taylor
Mexico is in the transitional phase of being both farm labor exporter and importer: serving as the major supplier of hired labor to US farms but increasingly also relying on farm workers from Guatemala. This report examines the labor market dynamics of the region, focusing on changes in the volume and composition of production, the supermarket revolution in Latin America, training and education changes, and more. It assesses the implications of these changes on workers and migration. Download Report | Spanish-Language Brief
Manufacturing in the United States, Mexico, and Central America: Implications for Competitiveness and Migration By Peter A. Creticos and Eleanor Sohnen
The manufacturing sector is a significant source of employment for workers from Mexico and Central America's Northern Triangle — with an estimated 17 percent employed in manufacturing in Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, and immigrants from these countries making up 8 percent of the US manufacturing workforce. This report examines how aggressive manufacturing-attraction strategies have benefited the economies of Mexico, and to a lesser extent, the Northern Triangle. Yet the achievements of the maquiladora development strategy have masked important flaws that threaten to stymie the promise of even greater economic growth. The report outlines the need for the regional workforce to gain the skills to compete with counterparts in advanced manufacturing regions such as northern Europe and Japan, as well as for credentialing standards, training systems, and outcome measures that are comparable to those in industrialized economies. Download Report| Spanish-Language Brief
Crime and Violence in Mexico and Central America: An Evolving but Incomplete US Policy Response By Andrew Selee, Cynthia J. Arnson, and Eric L. Olson
Amid dramatic increases in crime and violence in Mexico and Central America, the US government has significantly increased its attention to public security issues in the region since 2007, with the Merida Initiative and the Central American Regional Security Initiative. The US policy response has been hampered to an extent, however, by US and regional obstacles. The authors suggest the policy emphasis has begun to shift in important ways, with more attention paid to addressing the citizen security crisis — a move away from the earlier near-total focus on combating drug trafficking and transnational crime. Download Report
In the Lurch between Government and Chaos: Unconsolidated Democracy in Mexico By Luis Rubio
Democratic transitions in Mexico and parts of Central America over the past two decades have tested the limits of their governing institutions, with old-regime institutions not being overhauled to keep pace with modern, complex challenges. The old mechanisms to control and contain crime and violence have proven too primitive; organized crime has taken over key activities and corruption has become more entrenched at various levels of government. The challenge is to build modern, competent democratic institutions capable of engaging in good governance. Download Report
Paying for Crime: A Review of the Relationships between Insecurity and Development in Mexico and Central America By Eleanor Sohnen
Crime and insecurity are undermining economic and social prosperity in Mexico and Central America by diverting public and private resources away from productive uses, as well as eroding the public trust in government institutions that is critical to sustain healthy societies. This report examines the economic, social, and political costs resulting from insecurity in the region, as well as implications for the future. Download Report
Transnational Crime in Mexico and Central America: Its Evolution and Role in International Migration By Steven Dudley
The growth of organized crime in Mexico and Central America has dramatically increased the risks that migrants face as they attempt to cross the region. Encountering rising threats posed by Mexican drug traffickers, Central American gangs, and corrupt government officials, migrants increasingly are forced to seek the assistance of intermediaries known as polleros, or “coyotes.” Those unable to afford a coyote are more likely to be abused or kidnapped, and held for ransom along the way.
Border Insecurity in Central America’s Northern Triangle By Ralph Espach and Daniel Haering
Governments in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras have historically neglected their borders, with Mexican-based trafficking cartels the latest to take advantage of the uncontrolled borders. The authors outline the long-standing pattern of government inattention to the borders – probing root causes that range from institutional, economic, and resource challenges to corruption and weak government structures. Arguing that a focus on the borders per se is misleading, the authors sketch a number of policy recommendations, including the need to focus on providing state services to the neglected areas. Download Report
New Approaches to Migration Management in Mexico and Central America By Francisco Alba and Manuel Ángel Castillo
Migration has emerged as a critical policy issue for Mexico and Central America during the past three decades. This report traces the history of migration and transmigration trends and policy in Mexico and Central America, and examines Mexico’s sweeping 2011 immigration law and implementation challenges. Download Report
Understanding Mexico’s Economic Underperformance By Gordon H. Hanson
Despite major economic reforms, fiscal discipline, privatization of state-owned enterprise, and strong growth in foreign trade and investment during recent decades, Mexico has underperformed economically relative to comparably situated nations. The report presents four arguments as to why Mexico has not sustained higher rates of economic growth: poorly functioning credit markets that inhibit long-term growth; unbalanced incentives toward informality in the labor market; inefficient regulation that diminishes the country’s comparative industrial advantage; and international competition, especially with China, which undermines export strength. The author offers policymakers a road map to expand economic opportunities. Download Report
Central American Development: Two Decades of Progress and Challenges for the Future By Hugo Beteta
Central America has witnessed an extraordinary transformation over the past two decades: : from authoritarian governments and civil strife to democratically elected governments and peaceful political transitions; from rural-based populations to urban majorities; and from volatile, resource-dependent economies into stable global exporters. This report traces the gains in economic growth, trade integration, and reduction in poverty and inequality in Central America, but makes clear that important challenges remain — among them the region’s inability to generate sufficient employment to keep pace with demographic growth, persistently large income inequality, and a surge in violence and public insecurity. Download Report
The Development and Fiscal Effects of Emigration on Mexico By Raymundo Campos-Vazquez and Horacio Sobarzo
The economic consequences of emigration on migrants’ countries of origin have long been studied, yet the precise assessment of positive and negative impacts remains complex. This analysis finds that when the labor market effects and household income benefits of remittances are compiled into a model of the Mexican economy, Mexico’s fiscal balance appears to benefit from emigration – its GDP rising by 8.8 percent and tax collection by 7.4 percent. Download Report
US Immigration Policy since 9/11: Understanding the Stalemate over Comprehensive Immigration Reform By Marc R. Rosenblum
The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks derailed what had seemed to be a turning point in US immigration policy: A move away from the assertive enforcement policies that had held sway since the mid-1990s. But just days after the US and Mexican presidents had agreed to a framework that included a temporary worker program, legalization, and new border security measures, 9/11 dramatically reshaped the policy debate. This report reviews the history of immigration legislation since then, including new enforcement mandates enacted immediately after the attacks and the unsuccessful efforts to pass comprehensive immigration reform. Download Report
US Immigration Policy and Mexican/Central American Migration Flows: Then and Now By Marc R. Rosenblum and Kate Brick
Migration from Mexico and Central America’s “Northern Triangle” region (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) to the United States has increased significantly in the past four decades, from less than 1 million immigrants in the 1970s to 14 million today. Propelled by difficult economic and social conditions at home, massive opportunity differentials, and strengthening social networks, these regional migration flows have been shaped by evolving policies and practices. This report examines the push-and-pull factors of migration in the region from three major migration periods: the mostly laissez faire policies prior to the 1930s, the large-scale Bracero temporary worker program before and after World War II, and the mostly illegal system that emerged after the Bracero Program’s end in 1964. Download Report
Mexican and Central American Immigrants in the United States By Kate Brick, A. E. Challinor, and Marc R. Rosenblum
The Mexican and Central American immigrant population in the United States has increased by a factor of 20 since 1970 — a period during which the overall US immigrant population increased four-fold. This report examines the age, educational, and workforce characteristics of immigrants and the second generation from Mexico and Central America, finding that these immigrants are younger, more likely to be male, and more likely to be married with children than the US born or other immigrant groups. A high proportion are unauthorized, with key implications for their economic and social status and the overall immigration debate. Download Report
Evolving Demographic and Human-Capital Trends in Mexico and Central America and Their Implications for Regional Migration
By Aaron Terrazas, Demetrios G. Papademetriou, and Marc R. Rosenblum
This report for the Regional Migration Study Group assesses the implications for regional migration resulting from the rapidly evolving demographic and human-capital profiles of Mexico and Central America as well as the longstanding shifts in the US economy and labor market that were accelerated by the recent economic crisis. Taken together, these changes mean that policymakers can no longer rely on the conventional wisdom about regional labor mobility that has guided their decisions in the past. Download Report | Press Release
