Dr. Singer introduced the United Nation's International Migration Report with an overview of the magnitude and complexities of migration issues. The report states that 175 million people reside in a country other than where they were born, representing 3 percent of the world's population. The number of migrants has doubled since 1970, with most of that growth occurring in more developed countries. In 2001, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution encouraging countries to strengthen international cooperation on migration policy and calling on UN agencies to expand studies of migration.

Dr. Singer observed that migration presents demographers with a daunting challenge. Unlike mortality and fertility, the two other factors of demographic change, migration is impermanent and often difficult to observe. She described the International Migration Report as a major advance in knowledge on migrant stock and flows, remittances, refugees, undocumented migrants, and government policies, but reminded attendees that migration is a truly global issue and that behind the statistics lie the stories of countless human lives.

Joseph Chamie, Director, United Nations Population Division

Dr. Chamie, lead author of the International Migration Report, discussed the report within the context of revolutionary changes in mortality and fertility in the last century. Global population nearly quadrupled in the twentieth century, a growth rate unprecedented in world history. Thus, while migrants remained constant as a percentage of the world's population through the twentieth century, their volume has doubled in the last generation.

Dr. Chamie then described the two very distinct demographic paths that developing and developed nations are currently taking. According to UN projections, 97 to 98 percent of world population growth through 2050 will occur in developing nations. There, improvements in mortality have outpaced reductions in fertility, leading to young, expanding populations. Pakistan, for example, is projected to grow from 150 million people today to 350 million in 2050, which would make it the world's fourth largest country, behind only the demographic powerhouse India and the slower-growing giants China and the United States.

Dr. Chamie contrasted this with the experience of the developed world, where improved mortality rates have already been followed by a sharp drop in fertility, contributing to a gradual slowing of the world's population growth. Many developed nations are now declining in population. For example, Italy's population in 2050 is projected to be smaller than it was in 1950, evoking for Dr. Chamie the image of an empty "Europe's theme park." He projected that the United States' population will continue to grow even in the absence of immigration, but that immigration will account for 85% of population growth expected through 2050.

In the next fifty years, this demographic transition threatens to produce a developed world in which a very high proportion of the population is above retirement age. Dr. Chamie projected that over 1/3 of Italians will be above 65 in 2050. At that point, there would be only 1.5 Italians of working age for every person above 65, a drop from the current ratio of 3.7. Even countries that are continuing to grow are not immune to this plunge in the ratio of working-age people to retirement-age people: By 2050, China's ratio will drop from 10 to 2.7 and the US's will drop from 5.4 to 2.7.

Dr. Chamie then addressed possible ways to maintain the ratio of workers to retirees in the developed world. In order to maintain their current ratios of workers to retirees without migration, all of the developed nations would have to increase retirement ages to well above seventy, an option he assessed as politically and socially improbable. He then used the case of Germany to assess the possibility that migration of young people from the developing world can reinvigorate the workforces of developed nations.

Germany currently accepts approximately 200,000 immigrants per year, on average. In Dr. Chamie's colorful model, this quantity was represented as a string 2 meters long. In order to keep Germany's population from declining through 2050, that string would need to grow to 4 meters. To keep the labor force constant, Germans would have to accept that sting stretching to 5 meters. To maintain current ratios of working-age to retirement-age people, the string would need to be a striking 45 meters in length. In other words, Germany would have to increase immigration to over twenty times present levels, for every year through 2050, to maintain current ratios of working-age people to retirement-age people. Dr Chamie concluded, "You cannot deal with aging through immigration."

Dr. Chamie closed with a list of the some of the International Migration Report's notable figures, including:

• There are currently 175 million migrants
• 16 million people are refugees.
• Net annual flow of migrants is 2.3 million people.
• Remittances from workers to their home countries total at least 62 billion dollars a year.
• 40% of countries have policies that aim to reduce immigration.
• 20% of countries have policies that aim to reduce emigration.

Demetrios Papademetriou, Director, Migration Policy Institute

Dr. Papademetriou discussed the policy implications of the trends Dr. Chamie described. He pointed out that maintaining present ratios of workers to retirees is not an economic necessity, but that a stable ratio between 3 and 4 is desirable. He then offered a number of policy options through which developed nations might increase the ratio of workers to retirees and invited policy-makers to choose among them. One policy option is to increase workforce participation among young, unemployed, and older people. Dr. Papademetriou concurred with Dr. Chamie's assessment of the possibility of dramatically raising retirement ages, pointing out that the age at which people can access public pensions has a negligible impact on their retirement decisions. An alternative option is to prove that "demography is not destiny" by raising the fertility rate in the developed world. Dr. Papademetriou argued that, as public policy, creating children is quite difficult. He gave examples of aggressive incentive-based programs that failed to raise birth rates in Greece, Japan, and Sweden. The final option he discussed was that of using migration to bolster the workforces of developing nations. Immigration as it is currently conceived will not provide a solution because the birthrates of permanent immigrants quickly drop to those comparable to natives. Dr. Papademetriou proposed abandoning the current bimodal concept of migration in order to recognize and encourage the desire of migrants to return to their home countries. Circular migration could provide developed countries with socially and politically acceptable access to a stream of young workers from developing nations. Dr. Papademetriou acknowledged that temporary migration programs have often produced permanent immigration, but concluded by stating, "Proper management of migration is the key."

Charles Keely, Professor of International Migration and of Demography, Georgetown University

Dr. Keely opened his discussion by clarifying and questioning points put forward by the preceding speakers. He emphasized that the report's projections cannot predict social changes and warned against labeling older people as non-productive. Dr. Keely then focused on the powerful role remittances workers send home from abroad play in developing countries. Examples included the case of Jordan, where remittances amount to a quarter of gross national product. He observed that remittances do not drop off significantly as migrants stay for longer periods in their host country. The challenge for policy-makers is to find ways to channel remittances toward productive investments. In his final remarks, Dr. Keely criticized the tone of the report's section on current refugee policy as one-sided and overly pessimistic. He argued that most countries' refugee admission policies are actually more generous than required by international law because they were formulated in the context of the Cold War. He reiterated his agreement that policies do need to be reformed, but that debate on issues such as expedited removal should continue.

Roberta Cohen, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution

Dr. Cohen focused on people who are forced to migrate within their country, an issue not covered by the International Migration Report. Numbers of internally displaced persons increased from 1.2 million people in 1982 to 25 million today, while numbers of refugees who cross international borders decreased. The case of displaced people in countries whose borders have changed and of refugees who have returned to their home countries but been forced to move internally further complicates the issue. She called for increased study of the relationship between internally displaced persons and refugees.

Dr. Cohen observed that international institutions are beginning to take note of the growth in internally displaced persons despite the politically sensitive nature of the issue. The UNHCR decided that it will aid Iraqis fleeing conflict whether or not they cross national borders. The Economic Community of West African States identified internally displaced persons as a priority in their regional migration policy. Still, said Dr. Cohen, data on internally displaced persons is scarce and more international attention needs to be brought to bear on their plight.

Lavinia Lamone, Executive Director, Immigration and Refugee Services of America and the US Committee for Refugees

Ms. Lamone stated that refugee policy has not yet been adjusted to reflect a globalized, post-Cold War world. She observed that governments have little control of the movement of people across their border except in the case of refugees. Thus, while 35 million people entered the US last year, the comparatively small flow of refugees into the country was the only movement suspended in the aftermath of September 11th. She predicted that the number of refugees allowed to enter the US this year would be a drop from last year's figure of 27,000, which was the lowest in 25 years.

Ms. Lamone suggested increased work on making repatriation work, and reflected on the failure of the other traditional options of resettlement in place and resettlement in a third country. All of these remedies have proved inadequate and led to refugees being warehoused in refugee camps or being trafficked illegally. She called for rethinking of the philosophical underpinnings of refugee policy. Ms. Lamone closed by saying that, based on her own experience growing up in Los Angeles and working with refugees, immigrants choose to settle only in places where they can create a workable life.

Question and Answer Session

After the panel's discussion, Dr. Chamie fielded questions on his projections for transition economy countries and Latin America and on the assumptions about migration used to make his projections. In his answers, he cautioned that the projections are extensions of current observable trends, not predictions of future social and political changes. In several transition economy countries, for example, an unexpected increase in mortality after the fall of the Soviet Union contradicted previous projections. He also noted that the AIDS epidemic will cause powerful and unpredictable changes in both mortality and migration. Dr. Chamie directed attendees with more detailed questions on his results and methods to the website http://www.unpopulation.org.